Weekly Analysis and Recommendations: The British Pound rose against the U.S. Dollar last week on relatively light volume. Most of the price action was
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:
The British Pound rose against the U.S. Dollar last week on relatively light volume. Most of the price action was attributed to position-adjustments by short-sellers reducing their bets for a September interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Comments from Federal Reserve vice chairman Stanley Fischer early in the week led to a shift in investor sentiment which underpinned the GBP/USD.
Inflation data from the U.K. and U.S. will be watched closely this week. On Tuesday, U.K. consumer inflation is expected to remain flat with a reading of 0.0%. In June, the inflation index fell to 0% from 0.1% the prior month due to lower clothing and food prices. According to the Bank of England, consumer inflation is expected to remain low over the near-term, but it expects it to pick up by the end of the year. The BoE is counting on rising wages to lead to increased consumption which should exert upward pressure on inflation. Like the Fed, the BoE would like to see improving labor and inflation data.
Wednesday could produce the most volatile reactions to reports with the release of the U.S. consumer inflation report and the latest Fed minutes. U.S. consumer inflation is expected to show an increase of 0.2%. In June, it showed a reading of 0.3%. Lower energy prices are being blamed for the decline. This report is important because it is a major component in the Fed’s decision process as to whether to raise rates in September or refrain. The Fed minutes are expected to reveal how wide the gaps are between the hawks and the doves, and how real a September rate hike is.
Look for the short-covering rally to continue if the U.S. consumer inflation figure misses its mark. Sentiment for a rate hike in September may already be shifting because the surprise devaluations by the People’s Bank of China have created financial market instability. This should also be favorable to the GBP/USD over the near-term.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Important Reports to Watch This Week:
Date Time Curr Event Forecast Previous
Mon Aug 17 |
8:30am ET |
USD |
Empire State Manufacturing Index |
5.0 |
3.9 |
||||
Tue Aug 18 |
4:30am ET |
GBP |
CPI y/y |
0.0% |
0.0% |
||||
GBP |
PPI Input m/m |
-1.3% |
-1.3% |
||||||
GBP |
RPI y/y |
0.9% |
1.0% |
||||||
8:30am ET |
USD |
Building Permits |
1.21M |
1.34M |
|||||
USD |
Housing Starts |
1.20M |
1.17M |
||||||
Wed Aug 19 |
8:30am ET |
USD |
CPI m/m |
0.2% |
0.3% |
||||
USD |
Core CPI m/m |
0.2% |
0.2% |
||||||
10:30am ET |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-1.7M |
||||||
2:00pm ET |
USD |
FOMC Meeting Minutes |
|||||||
Thu Aug 20 |
2:45am ET |
USD |
FOMC Member Williams Speaks |
||||||
4:30am ET |
GBP |
Retail Sales m/m |
0.2% |
-0.2% |
|||||
8:30am ET |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
272K |
274K |
|||||
10:00am ET |
USD |
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index |
7.2 |
5.7 |
|||||
USD |
Existing Home Sales |
5.45M |
5.49M |
||||||
Fri Aug 21 |
4:30am ET |
GBP |
Public Sector Net Borrowing |
-2.3B |
8.6B |
||||
9:45am ET |
USD |
Flash Manufacturing PMI |
53.5 |
53.8 |
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.