Gold News: Will NFP Data Fuel Gold Breakout Rally Above $3347.97?

Gold Prices Hold Ahead of US Jobs Data and Fed Rate Bets

Gold prices hovered slightly lower on Thursday, with traders watching the critical short-term pivot at $3347.97 for a third session. A break above this level could fuel momentum to retest the $3451.53 to $3500.20 zone, with the latter marking gold’s all-time high.

On the downside, immediate support is near the flat 50-day moving average at $3321.90 and the 50% retracement level at $3310.40. A close below $3310.40 may open the door for a retest of the previous bottom at $3244.41.

At 10:42 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $3352.49, down $4.59 or -0.14%.

Will US Jobs Data Push the Federal Reserve Toward Rate Cuts?

Traders are locked in ahead of Thursday’s US non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to show the addition of 110,000 jobs in June, down from 139,000 in May, with the unemployment rate seen ticking up to 4.3%.

This follows softer ADP data showing a decline of 33,000 private payrolls in June, the first drop in over two years. Any signs of labor market weakness could strengthen the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut, a scenario that typically supports non-yielding gold.

WisdomTree’s Nitesh Shah noted gold is “looking for new triggers,” with the jobs report as a potential catalyst for the next significant move. Lower yields have already started to appear, with the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield slipping to 4.259% and the 30-year yield down to 4.789%, reflecting investor positioning ahead of the data.

Trump’s Trade Moves and Spending Bill Stir Market Caution

President Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam, including a 20% tariff on imports, while expressing optimism on India trade talks. Lower trade tensions and stable inflation expectations could give the Fed room to ease policy.

Meanwhile, Trump’s multi-trillion-dollar spending bill cleared a key procedural hurdle in the House, setting up a final vote. If passed, the bill could increase fiscal deficits, potentially influencing Fed policy direction and Treasury yields, both of which remain crucial for gold prices forecasts.

Gold Prices Forecast: A Bullish Lean if Labor Data Disappoints

With gold trapped in a narrow range, a softer-than-expected jobs report could trigger a bullish breakout above $3347.97, opening the path toward $3450 and beyond. Conversely, a strong print could pressure gold toward the $3310 support zone.

Given falling Treasury yields and a cautious Fed, the bias leans bullish for gold prices projections if labor market softness persists, providing traders an actionable framework to watch for potential breakouts in the coming sessions.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.