Gold Price Forecast — A Brief Pullback Before Resuming Higher

Gold Big Picture

Here’s a quick reminder of where I believe we are in the larger bull trend: the 2026 pullback is only the halfway point of a 10-year rally that should take gold well above $10,000 by the end of the decade. Just like in 2006, I expect the recent lows to hold throughout the remainder of the bull market. In other words, I believe we just saw a major bottom.

US Dollar

The dollar has been forming intermediate lows roughly every three to four months, and it appears we may have just formed another one on August 20th. Our work suggests that a major top was established in June, corresponding with the anticipated mid-year lows in precious metals.

The current rebound is expected to roll over in September. Prices would need to take out the 101.80 high to invalidate our outlook for renewed weakness extending into late 2027. We expect this prolonged period of dollar weakness to provide a significant tailwind for precious metals, ultimately fueling new all-time highs.

Gold

Gold is experiencing its first meaningful pullback after bottoming mid-year, as forecasted. Look for prices to find support around the 50-day EMA during the opening week of September, with final support near $4,200 should the correction extend deeper.

Silver

 Silver bottomed mid-year as forecasted, and prices are struggling to regain the $70.00 level, which is not surprising. Look for initial support around the 50-day EMA at $64.65 during this pullback, with final support near $60.00 should the correction deepen.

Platinum

 Platinum is correcting following its initial surge from the mid-year low. Look for initial support around the 50-day EMA, with final support arriving near $1,700 should the correction deepen.

GDX to Gold Ratio

Miners are breaking out relative to gold, supporting our view that they are positioned to outperform. We believe the sector could double relative to gold as it moves toward a more appropriate valuation.

GDX

Miners have surged 50% from their July low, supporting our view that they will outperform gold during the second half of this bull market. Progressive closes below the price gap at $100 would confirm a pullback is underway, with ideal support arriving around $90.00.

GDXJ

Progressive closes in gold juniors below the $129 price gap would confirm a mid-cycle pullback, with ideal support arriving around $118.

SILJ

Silver juniors are forming a large outside reversal day, suggesting a short-term top may be in place. A pullback toward $28.00–$30.00 could offer an opportunity to add to positions, particularly for those who missed the mid-year low.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin surged nearly 30% in the back half of August, supporting the potential for an end to the bear market that began last October. Most of the recent gains, however, were driven by a short squeeze, and in my view, it would take a sustained breakout above $85,000 to confirm that a bottom is in place.

Another possibility I’m considering is that this was simply a convincing fakeout designed to turn sentiment bullish before the final collapse into Q4. Historically, the four-year cycle does not bottom until we get closer to year-end. A low in early July would deviate from that pattern, which is why I continue to look for renewed weakness in September and October.

In Closing

Metals and miners bottomed mid-year right on schedule, and this is just a brief 1 to 2-week pullback in a growing uptrend.

It will take time for gold to sustainably reclaim $5,000 and silver to move back above $100, but we expect both to make new all-time highs next year, with miners likely leading the way.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.