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James Hyerczyk
Comex Gold
Comex Gold

April Comex Gold futures are trading lower shortly before the release of the Fed minutes at 1900 GMT. The minutes could reveal the timing and the number of Fed rate hikes in 2018. It could also let investors know the Fed’s thoughts on inflation and the impact of a tightening monetary policy on stock market volatility.

Generally speaking, a hawkish Fed should put pressure on gold prices.

Daily April Comex Gold

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A move through $1364.40 will change the main trend to up. A trade through $1309.00 will reaffirm the downtrend.

The short-term range is $1309.00 to $1364.40. Its retracement zone at $1336.70 to $1330.20 is controlling the short-term direction of the market. This zone is currently being tested.

The longer-term retracement zone at $1306.60 to $1291.50 is the primary downside target.

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Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the current price at $1331.40 (1800 GMT) and the earlier price action, the direction of the gold market the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $1330.20.

A sustained move under $1330.20 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first target angle comes in at $1325.00.

Look for an acceleration to the downside on a move under $1325.00. The next target angle comes in at $1312.00. This is the last potential support angle before the $1309.00 main bottom, followed by the major support zone at $1306.60 to $1291.50.

A sustained move over $1330.20 will signal the presence of buyers. Overtaking the steep downtrending Gann angle at $1332.40 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a rally into $1336.70.

The daily chart starts to open up over $1336.70. Potential upside targets include an uptrending Gann angle at $1341.00, followed by another downtrending Gann angle at $1348.40. Prices could continue to climb over this level if the buying volume comes in strong.

Look for volatility with the release of the Fed minutes. Hawkish minutes should be bullish, dovish minutes should be bearish. Essentially, we’re looking for an upside bias to develop on a sustained move over $1336.70 and a downside bias on a sustained move under $1330.20.

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