Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – January 17, 2019 Forecast

Gold is trading lower on Thursday. The market continues to remain rangebound for a ninth session due to conflicting fundamentals. Supporting the market is the dovish U.S. Federal Reserve. It suggested a cautious approach to future rate hikes. This should keep a lid on the U.S. Dollar while supporting dollar-denominated gold. Keeping a cap on gold prices at this time is increased demand for higher risk assets.

At 0721 GMT, February Comex Gold is trading $1291.10, down $2.70 or -0.21%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been sideways to lower since the formation of the potentially bearish closing price reversal top at $1300.40 on January 4.

A trade through $1300.40 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through $1278.10 will confirm the closing price reversal top.

Helping to hold the market in its trading range is the major retracement zone at $1285.70 to $1312.30.

The short-term range is $1300.40 to $1278.10. Its 50% level or pivot at $1289.30 has been controlling the direction of the market for nearly two weeks.

The main range is $1236.50 to $1300.40. If the reversal top is confirmed then look for a break into its 50% level at $1268.50.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the recent price action and the current price at $1291.10, the direction of the February Comex Gold futures contract on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term pivot at $1289.30.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1289.30 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move can generate enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the top at $1300.40. Taking out this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger with the major Fibonacci level at $1312.30 the next target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1289.30 will signal the presence of sellers. This is followed by the major 50% level at $1285.70. If this level fails then look for a potential spike to the downside with $1278.10 the next target. This level is also the trigger point for an acceleration into the short-term 50% level at $1268.50.