Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Main Trend Still Up, but Losing Upside Momentum
Gold futures are trading lower late in the session on Friday, underpinned by lower Treasury yields, but capped by a sharp rise in the U.S. Dollar.
The key 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edged lower on Friday following consumer spending data that showed significant jumps in personal income and spending as well as a rise in prices.
At 20.37 GMT, June Comex gold futures are trading $1767.90, down $0.40 or -0.02%.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar rose on Friday, extending gains after upbeat data on personal income, spending, and manufacturing in the U.S. Midwest, with market participants also taking profits on the currency’s short dollar positions this month.
Personal income and spending rose 21.1% and 4.2%, respectively, in March, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, as the economic recovery continued to gain momentum amid more federal stimulus. Chicago PMI jumped to 72.1, beating the 65.4 estimate and 66.3 previous read.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending lower. A trade through $1798.40 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through $1723.20 will change the main trend to down.
The minor trend is down. This is controlling the momentum. A trade through $1789.90 will change the minor trend to up. A move through $1754.60 indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger.
The minor range is $1798.40 to $1754.60. Its 50% level at $1776.50 is resistance.
The major resistance is the long-term 50% level at $1788.50.
The first short-term range is $1723.20 to $1798.40. Its 50% level at $1760.80 is support.
The second short-term range is $1677.30 to $1798.40. Its 50% level at $1737.90 is another support level.
The major support is the long-term Fibonacci level at $1711.90.
Look for a downside bias as long as June gold futures remain under the long-term 50% level at $1788.50.
Taking out $1760.80 with conviction could trigger an acceleration to the downside with $1737.90 the next likely downside target.
The 50% level at $1737.90 is the last support before the $1723.20 main bottom.
Taking out $1723.20 will change the main trend to down. This could trigger a break into the major Fibonacci level at $1711.90. This level is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the double-bottom at $1677.30 and $1676.20.
On the upside, $1788.50 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration. The first target would be the main top at $1817.60, followed by $1858.90.