Gold Price Prediction – Prices Reverse Lower on Strong Import Data

Gold prices moved lower on Tuesday as the dollar moves higher. U.S. Treasury yields moved lower despite a stronger than expected U.S. trade deficit which hit a record. Imports rose the most in consumer goods, which increased $4.5 billion.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices moved lower, reversing Monday’s climb. Target resistance is seen near the April highs at 1,797 and then the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2%, which is seen near 1,828. Support is seen near the 50-day moving average at 1,745. The 10-day moving average has crossed above the 50-day moving average which means that a short-term uptrend is now in place. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Medium-term momentum is poised to turn negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index is above to generate a crossover sell signal. The MACD histogram is printing in positive territory but also poised to generate a crossover sell signal.

Trade Deficit Surges

The U.S. trade deficit hit a fresh record high in March as consumers flush with government cash spurred a continuing demand for foreign-made goods. The trade imbalance with China increased more than 22% to $36.9 billion. The deficit with Mexico rose 23.5% to $8.4 billion. Exports actually increased for the month, rising $200 billion or 6.6%. But that was offset by a continued demand for imported goods, which increased 6.3% or $274.5 billion. Imports rose the most in consumer goods, which increased $4.5 billion, including a $1.2 billion rise in textile apparel and household goods. Industrial supplies and materials imports rose $3.7 billion and capital goods were up $3.3 billion.