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David Becker
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Gold prices edged higher but remain rangebound. The US dollar moved higher along with US long-term yields but this did not impact the movement of the yellow metal. Gold implied volatility eased after rallying slightly on Thursday. JP Morgan is now forecasting that US growth will contract in the Q1 of 2021, as the virus continues to spread.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices edged higher but ran into resistance near the 10-day moving average at 1,875. For the week prices declined by 0.84%. Support is seen near the October lows at 1,850. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 17, below the oversold trigger level of 20, which could foreshadow a correction. Medium-term momentum is neutral to negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the red with a declining trajectory which points to consolidation.

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JP Morgan Sees Economic Contraction

JPMorgan economists appear to be the first of the major banks to forecast that the Q1 will contract due to the spreading coronavirus. Most of the Wall Street Banks still forecast that the US economy will expand in the Q1. JP Morgan project that the Q1 will contract by 1% after growth of 2.8% in the Q4. For the Q2, they see the economy rallying and growth of 4.5% followed by a robust 6.5% in Q3.

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