Gold (XAU) Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Gold Eyes $3,500 as Trade Tensions Intensify

Market Overview

Gold prices surged to a fresh record high of $3,495 per ounce during Asian trading hours on Tuesday, continuing a strong bullish trend fueled by rising US-China trade friction, geopolitical instability, and increasing doubts about the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory. The metal is up nearly 2.6% in the past week, drawing safe-haven flows as investors brace for potential economic headwinds.

Tensions escalated after the U.S. announced additional tariffs on Chinese imports, triggering concerns over a broader slowdown in global trade. Beijing responded with strong warnings against bilateral agreements with the U.S., signaling deteriorating diplomatic ties. The renewed trade conflict has rattled financial markets and pushed risk-averse investors into bullion.

“The price action reflects heightened risk aversion and a weakening dollar backdrop,” said Yeap Jun Rong, strategist at IG. “Gold remains a preferred hedge as long as uncertainty dominates the macro landscape.”

At the same time, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) slipped to a three-year low near 97.95, further supporting gold’s rise. A weaker dollar typically boosts demand for dollar-denominated commodities by making them more affordable for foreign buyers.

Political pressure on the Federal Reserve has added another layer of uncertainty. President Trump’s criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell—and suggestions that his position could be under review—have raised concerns about the central bank’s independence. As a result, traders are increasingly betting on a more dovish monetary stance.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now price in a 25-basis-point rate cut by June, with expectations for at least three cuts in 2025. The dovish shift has weighed heavily on Treasury yields and the dollar, creating a favorable environment for gold.

Meanwhile, silver (XAG/USD) climbed to $33.04, supported by both safe-haven flows and resilient industrial demand. Attention now turns to upcoming U.S. PMI data and Fed speakers, which could shape expectations for monetary policy and influence gold’s next move.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold eyes $3,500 as bulls defend recent breakout; silver steadies near $32.88 with momentum intact. Watch for volume shifts near key resistance to confirm trend continuation or stall.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is pushing higher, now trading at $3,481 after a strong breakout above $3,465. The rally gained traction after clearing the upper trendline of a rising wedge, marking a significant technical shift.

Immediate resistance stands at $3,500, a psychological and structural cap, while support now rests at $3,465 and $3,425 below that. The 50 EMA is rising at $3,343, and the 200 EMA sits comfortably lower at $3,188—both well below current price, confirming bullish momentum.

With gold riding above both moving averages and buyers firmly in control, the uptrend remains intact. Unless we see a sharp rejection from $3,500, momentum suggests bulls could extend the rally further. Watch volume near resistance for clues on next direction.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is holding firm near $32.88 after bouncing off rising trendline support around $32.59. The metal continues to respect both its 50 EMA ($32.51) and 200 EMA ($32.26), suggesting buyers remain in control despite recent pullbacks.

Resistance sits at $33.11, followed by a more formidable ceiling near $33.50. On the downside, $32.59 and $32.12 serve as the next key support levels.