Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: $4133.95–$4192.36 Retracement Zone to Set the Next Move

Gold Tests Key Resistance as Rate Cut Bets Heat Up

Spot gold (XAU/USD) is inching higher on Tuesday, testing the lower end of a key retracement zone between $4133.95 and $4192.36. This zone marks the 50% to 61.8% retracement of the recent decline, and trader reaction here is likely to dictate gold’s next major move.

At 13:39 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $4145.60, up $30.19 or +0.73%.

Bulls Eye Breakout Through $4192.36

Buyers are hoping that renewed rate cut speculation and easing fiscal uncertainty can push gold through the upper boundary at $4192.36. A sustained move above this level would likely shift momentum further in favor of the bulls, opening the door to a potential run at fresh highs.

However, a failure to break through resistance could attract sellers looking for a secondary lower top. Bears are eyeing a possible retest of the recent bottoms at $3928.68 and $3886.46. The 50-day moving average at $3903.42 remains a key trend indicator and support level. As long as gold holds above it, traders are likely to remain in “buy the dip” mode.

Government Reopening Fuels Fed Cut Bets

Tuesday’s gains are being driven by renewed optimism around a U.S. government funding deal. The Senate passed legislation late Monday that would keep the government funded through January. If the House follows suit, federal agencies would resume normal operations, allowing delayed economic data to be released — a key driver for the Fed’s next move.

With the next FOMC decision just weeks away, traders are pricing in a 64% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December. The latest tailwind for gold comes from expectations that resumed data could support the case for looser policy. A soft inflation print, for example, could validate Fed Governor Stephen Miran’s call for a 50-basis-point cut.

Dollar Under Pressure as Treasuries Stall

With the Treasury market closed for Veteran’s Day, there’s limited movement in yields Tuesday. But Monday’s action reflected a modest risk-on tone as optimism around a shutdown resolution pushed yields slightly higher.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is drifting lower at 99.359, down 0.26% on the day. It’s trading below a short-term pivot at 99.463, which opens the door for a deeper pullback toward the 50-day moving average at 98.451. Dollar softness is another tailwind for gold prices, especially with front-end U.S. rates under pressure.

Outlook: Gold Needs to Clear $4192.36 to Sustain Rally

Bottom line: Gold is approaching a critical test. A clean breakout above $4192.36 could trigger momentum buying and extend the rally into year-end, especially if upcoming data firms the case for rate cuts. But rejection at this zone and a break below $3903.42 would shift control back to the bears. Until then, bulls still have the upper hand — but they need to prove it soon.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.