Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Break Below 50-Day Moving Average Signals Bearish Shift

Gold Market Recap: Three Keys to Trading XAU/USD on Friday

Gold prices ended Friday sharply lower, closing at $3,337.070, a drop of $31.640 or 0.94%, as technical weakness, a stronger U.S. dollar, and improving risk sentiment took a toll on bullion. The session marked a significant technical development and reinforced several macro factors that traders must now factor into positioning ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve decision.

Close Below the 50-Day SMA Signals Technical Shift

Perhaps the most critical takeaway was gold’s close below the 50-day simple moving average at $3,341.0. This wasn’t just a minor dip—it marked a meaningful violation of a widely watched trend filter. The 50-day SMA has acted as support since mid-June, with gold bouncing off it several times over the past month. Friday’s failure to hold this level confirms a break in short-term bullish momentum and introduces the potential for deeper retracement toward the next key supports.

Technicians will now look to $3,310.480, followed by $3,282.660 and $3,244.410, as downside targets. On the upside, the 50-day SMA becomes immediate resistance, along with the session high at $3,373.495 and the recent top at $3,439.040.

Dollar Strength Reinforces Gold’s Decline

The U.S. Dollar Index staged a firm rebound on Friday, recovering from two-week lows. This surge coincided with a drop in weekly jobless claims to a three-month low, reinforcing views that the U.S. labor market remains resilient. With gold priced in dollars, a stronger greenback reduces its attractiveness to foreign buyers, amplifying downside pressure.

In addition, a firm labor backdrop makes it harder for the Fed to justify immediate rate cuts. The prospect of rates staying higher for longer diminishes gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset, making the dollar-gold inverse relationship even more impactful heading into the FOMC meeting.

Trade Optimism Undermines Safe-Haven Demand

Bullion’s role as a safe haven was further diminished on Friday by rising confidence in U.S.-EU trade talks. Following a finalized U.S.-Japan agreement earlier in the week, the European Commission expressed confidence in reaching a deal with Washington by the August 1 deadline. Risk appetite increased, with investors rotating into equities and risk-linked assets. As geopolitical tensions ease, capital continues flowing out of gold.

Gold Prices Forecast

Friday’s technical breakdown below the 50-day moving average, combined with fundamental headwinds, shifts the short-term outlook to bearish. Gold may attempt to base near $3,310.480, but unless the Fed signals dovish policy next week, sellers are likely to remain in control. A retest of $3,282.660 and possibly $3,244.410 is on the table if bearish momentum accelerates. Gold’s longer-term bias remains constructive, supported by the 200-day SMA at $2,991.303, but near-term risk is skewed to the downside.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.