Oil News: Crude Holds Above MAs as Traders Eye OPEC Production Signals and Supply Risk

Oil Prices Hold Above Key Moving Averages as Traders Focus on OPEC+ and Supply Flows

Crude oil futures eased Friday but remained technically supported, with prices settling above both the 50- and 200-day moving averages.

Light crude oil futures closed at $65.16, down 1.32%, but traders viewed the pullback as orderly consolidation rather than breakdown.

The 50-day MA at $63.80 and the 200-day MA at $64.05 continue to act as downside support, while resistance caps the upside near $68.34.

OPEC+ Expected to Signal Output Increase, but No Official Action Yet

Four OPEC+ delegates confirmed the group may back an output increase at Monday’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting. While the committee holds no formal decision-making authority, traders are preparing for a potential rise in production as the alliance looks to regain market share during peak summer demand.

Supply additions are likely to be incremental, but the market is already pricing in higher availability, especially with global inventories trending flat. The key is whether the group moves decisively or opts for verbal guidance only.

Venezuela and Iran Offer Fresh Supply Risks for Global Balances

The U.S. may soon allow Chevron and other firms to resume limited operations in Venezuela, potentially adding over 200,000 barrels per day of heavier crude to global flows. This would be a welcome development for U.S. refiners struggling with a tight slate of medium-to-heavy blends.

Meanwhile, Iran resumed nuclear talks with European officials. While no breakthrough was reported, any diplomatic traction could eventually lead to an increase in Iranian exports—another wildcard for global balances, particularly if paired with looser OPEC+ discipline.

Rig Count Continues to Slide, But Traders Shrug Off Domestic Slowdown

Baker Hughes reported another weekly decline in active U.S. oil and gas rigs—the 12th in 13 weeks. Though this points to restrained domestic supply growth down the line, traders remain more focused on immediate flows from sanctioned producers and OPEC+ signals. As a result, the rig count drop failed to provide a material floor to prices on Friday.

Market Forecast: Slightly Bullish While Above $63.80, but Downside Risk Builds Below

Crude remains technically supported above both the 50-day ($63.80) and 200-day ($64.05) moving averages, keeping a slightly bullish bias intact for now. A clean breakout above $68.34 would open room toward $69.89, a key upside target.

However, a decisive break below the 200-day MA would shift control to sellers, exposing $62.69 as the next downside level to watch. A close below that would negate the bullish structure and likely trigger additional long liquidation.

Traders should monitor moving average levels closely, as a breach either way could define the next leg. For now, the trend holds—but only just.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.