Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Holding Above 50-Day MA Puts $4046.60 Breakout in Play

Gold Price Eyes Breakout Above $4046.60 as Rate Cut Bets and Shutdown Fears Build

Spot gold (XAU/USD) is pushing higher into Friday’s session, testing the top of its recent consolidation zone at $4046.60. A breakout above this level would be a clear bullish signal, but bulls still face strong resistance at the short-term retracement zone between $4133.95 and $4192.36. For now, gold continues to trade on rate cut speculation and rising safe-haven demand tied to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown.

Support is holding for now, anchored by minor swing bottoms at $3928.68 and $3886.46. However, the more critical support zones remain the 50-day moving average at $3878.37 and a long-term pivot level at $3846.50. Price action suggests gold is forming an extended support base, and as long as the 50-day holds, the short-term bias remains skewed to the upside.

At 11:44 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $3998.39, up $21.25 or +0.53%.

Fed Cut Odds Rise After Private Job Data Shows Weakness

Traders are increasingly betting the Federal Reserve will move to ease in December, with CME FedWatch showing odds rising to 67%, up from 60% before this week’s data. Thursday’s Challenger report showed U.S. employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October — triple September’s number and the highest for that month since 2003. That aligns with growing signs of labor market softening, especially in government and retail sectors.

With the Bureau of Labor Statistics unable to release the nonfarm payrolls report for a second straight month due to the government shutdown, traders are leaning heavily on private data. The employment backdrop is now a key variable in the Fed’s calculus, particularly as officials warn against premature easing without full visibility on inflation trends.

Shutdown Drags On, Fuels Safe-Haven Buying

The prolonged U.S. government shutdown — now the longest on record — is also driving safe-haven flows into gold. Without access to official economic data, Fed officials have grown more cautious. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the lack of clarity “accentuates” the need to slow down on further policy changes. Meanwhile, Barclays sees a 60% probability that the shutdown ends between November 11–21, but a 15% chance it stretches into December.

Dollar and Treasury Yields Mixed as Uncertainty Mounts

U.S. Treasury yields were marginally higher Friday, with the 10-year at 4.089% and the 2-year at 3.555%, while the dollar index rose to 99.81, posting a slight weekly gain. But without consistent economic data, both markets remain directionless. The dollar is holding its range, and traders remain cautious about overreacting to incomplete signals.

Gold Price Forecast: Bullish Bias Holds Above $3878.37

The short-term outlook for gold remains bullish while prices hold above the 50-day moving average at $3878.37. A breakout above $4046.60 would open the door for a test of resistance at $4133.95, and potentially $4192.36.

That said, a break below the $3878.37–$3846.50 support zone would shift momentum back in favor of sellers. With rate cut odds climbing and safe-haven demand in play, gold bulls have the upper hand — for now.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.