Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: $4,633 Stalls as Silver Slips Below $74 Support

Market Overview

Central banks continued to accumulate gold in 2026 , buying a net 31 tonnes in the first couple of months, with Poland making a big splash by adding 20 tonnes. The World Gold Council is tipping the official sector to buy around 850 tonnes for the full year, which is a pretty similar pace to 2025, as the likes of emerging markets are looking to spread out their reserves as worldwide tensions are building and they push against the dollar.

Silver’s Industrial Demand Continues to be a Problem, Tightening Supply

Silver is looking at a sixth straight year of deficit in 2026, and this time it’s expected to be in the region of 46-67 million ounces. The main reason for this is industrial fabrication, which accounts for over 60% of overall demand, is holding up quite well despite a modest 2 % dip expected in 2026 to around 650 million ounces. As the solar panel, electric car and electronics industries keep on growing they are soaking up a lot more of the available silver coming out of the ground, and that’s putting pressure on stocks that have been stockpiled.

The geopolitical risks and long term inflation worries are sending a lot more money into both metals, and while private individuals do have a fair amount invested in gold, they are still sitting a lot lower than they did a decade ago, which means there’s a lot more room for investment in the metal. Analysts also pointed out that the interplay between all the gold that central banks are buying and the shortages of physical silver in the market are the biggest things to be on the look out for.

Gold Price Takes a Hit at $4,633 – Bulls Struggle Against $4,670 Hurdle

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently treading water at $4,633 after failing to make a clean break through the $4,668 ceiling. Take a look at those long upper wicks on the candlesticks and you’ll get a pretty good idea that there’s a buyer selling into the price near $4,670. And just to rub it in, the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement line conveniently lines up with $4,670, so you know where the roadblock is.

Momentum’s gone a bit flat – RSI is lingering around 46 – and the moving averages are stuck in neutral. But don’t get too comfortable at the lows of $4,536 yet – that 0.382 fib level is still looking like a useful support line. If you’re crazy enough to think about buying, you might just find yourself targeting $4,804 if you can somehow magically break through that pesky $4,670 resistance.

Trade idea – Only get involved if you can get a close above $4,670, with your stop-loss set firmly at $4,536.

Silver Price Takes a Dive at $73.46 – Channel Support Gives Way

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $73.46 after slipping below its fancy ascending channel. Check out those ugly bearish closes on the candlesticks and the lower highs that are just telling the story of a down-and-out crowd. RSI is snoozing at 41, and considering just how far it’s gone, you’d think it was oversold by now. Keep an eye on support at $69.85 – that’s the level you’ll want to keep your eye on if the price starts to tank. And if you’re short, you might just find your next level of resistance capping the price at $73.92.

Moving averages are moving – and not in a good way. If the price breaks down below $73 then things could get ugly, fast – and we might just see a charge down to $69.85 on the cards. Alternatively, if you get your long on and the price starts to recover above $74, you might just find the bears are getting a little less fierce.

Trade idea – Time to sell below $73, with your stop-loss set at $74.