Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Fed Caution, Strong Data, and Safe-Haven Demand

Market Overview

Gold prices held near record highs Wednesday as traders weighed cautious remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell against expectations of further policy easing. Powell emphasized the challenge of balancing persistent inflation pressures with signs of a softening labor market.

“We continue to weigh risks on both sides,” Powell said, adding that the timing of future rate cuts remains data-dependent.

Recent U.S. data reflected uneven economic momentum. Flash Manufacturing PMI slipped to 52.0 in September from 53.0, while Services PMI fell to 53.9, its weakest level since May. The Richmond Manufacturing Index deteriorated further to -17, the lowest since early 2023, underscoring pressure on factory activity.

Dollar Outlook Hinges on Upcoming Data

Markets now turn to upcoming economic reports that could sway Federal Reserve policy expectations. Thursday’s calendar includes final Q2 GDP, projected at 3.3%, alongside unemployment claims estimated at 233,000.

Durable goods orders are expected to show marginal declines, while Friday’s release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index will provide the Fed’s preferred inflation measure.

A softer set of figures could strengthen the case for rate cuts later this year, boosting demand for non-yielding assets such as gold and silver. Conversely, resilient data may temper expectations for aggressive easing, offering some support to the U.S. dollar.

Geopolitical Risks Underpin Safe-Haven Demand

Beyond monetary policy, geopolitical tensions remain a key driver for precious metals. President Trump reiterated U.S. defense commitments under NATO while suggesting Ukraine could reclaim occupied territory, rhetoric that raised regional risk premiums.

NATO responded with a warning that it would employ “all necessary tools” to defend its members following recent Russian incursions.

Such developments have reinforced investor preference for safe-haven assets, with silver following gold’s lead amid heightened uncertainty. Analysts note that silver’s dual role as both a safe-haven and industrial metal could amplify its moves if global risk appetite shifts.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold at $3,775 eyes $3,822 resistance, though overbought signals suggest a pullback. Silver holds $44.16, testing $44.44, with potential toward $45.32 if momentum sustains amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold trades at $3,775, holding gains after a steady climb from $3,625. Price action is consolidating just below resistance at $3,791, with the next target at $3,822. Support lies at $3,721 and $3,701, with the 50-EMA at $3,692 providing a strong cushion.

The RSI stands above 71, highlighting overbought conditions that may trigger a short-term pullback before further advances.

A breakout above $3,791 could extend gains toward $3,856, while failure to hold $3,721 risks a retest of the ascending trendline near $3,675. The broader structure remains bullish, supported by higher lows and strong EMA alignment, but near-term price action may cool before another leg higher.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver trades at $44.16 after rebounding strongly from the $41.12 support zone, with momentum now testing the $44.44 resistance near the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. The 50-EMA at $42.80 is holding as dynamic support, while the 200-EMA sits lower at $40.64, confirming the medium-term bullish trend.

RSI is near 70, signaling strength but edging close to overbought conditions, which could limit further upside in the short term.

A decisive break above $44.44 may open the way to $45.32 and $45.59. If resistance holds, consolidation back toward $43.73 or even $42.97 could follow. The trend remains upward, but traders should watch for exhaustion signs.