Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Fed Cut Bets, Dollar Moves Shape Next Market Breakout

Market Overview

Gold eased during Asian trading after touching a two-week high, with a modest rebound in the U.S. dollar pressuring the metal. Yet its underlying support remains intact, driven by persistent demand for safe-haven assets. Investors are closely monitoring concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence following heightened political scrutiny of its governors.

Analysts note that any perceived erosion of central bank autonomy could reinforce investor appetite for precious metals as a hedge against policy instability.

Silver followed a similar path, consolidating after recent gains but holding support from its dual role as both a safe-haven and an industrial metal. Demand tied to electronics, solar, and energy storage sectors continues to provide an additional layer of resilience for the metal.

Inflation Data in Focus

Attention now turns to the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, due Friday. Consensus forecasts point to a 2.6% annual rise in the headline measure and 2.9% in the core index.

“A hotter PCE print could complicate the Fed’s ability to move forward with rate cuts,” said a commodities strategist at a global investment bank.

Stronger inflation would bolster the dollar and Treasury yields, pressuring gold and silver in the short term. Conversely, a softer reading could reignite momentum for both metals.

Market Expectations for September Fed Cut

Investor positioning continues to reflect a strong bias toward monetary easing. The CME FedWatch Tool shows an 85% probability of at least a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting, up from 75% a week earlier. Lower rates generally weaken the dollar and reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver.

Geopolitical uncertainties, including persistent global conflicts and trade tensions, add another layer of support, keeping both metals attractive for diversification. “Precious metals remain an essential hedge in a market where economic and geopolitical signals remain fluid,” one market analyst said.

Overall, gold and silver markets remain anchored by safe-haven demand, inflation expectations, and shifting rate cut probabilities, leaving traders alert to incoming data and policy signals that could reset the balance of risks.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold and silver remain rangebound, coiling within triangles. Traders eye U.S. PCE inflation data for direction, with breakouts above $3,380 in gold or $39.00 in silver signaling bullish momentum.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading near $3,374, consolidating within a tightening symmetrical triangle on the 4-hour chart. The pattern shows higher lows forming near $3,311 and descending resistance from $3,402, signaling a breakout is approaching as price compresses.

The 50-EMA at $3,358 and 100-EMA at $3,354 are trending upward, offering buyers a supportive base. Momentum remains steady: the RSI at 55 shows moderate strength, while the MACD lines are converging, suggesting stabilization after recent swings.

Key resistance lies between $3,380–$3,402, with a breakout targeting $3,420–$3,438. On the downside, a drop below $3,350 could expose $3,330 and $3,311. Overall, the setup is balanced but tilts bullish, with traders watching for a decisive close above $3,380.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading near $38.41, consolidating within a tightening symmetrical triangle. Price is holding above the 50-EMA at $38.28 and the 100-EMA at $38.12, which continue to provide short-term support.

The RSI at 49 shows neutral momentum after cooling from recent highs, while the MACD is flat near zero, signaling limited conviction from either side. Key resistance remains at $39.01, with a breakout above this level likely to push silver toward $39.52–$39.97.

On the downside, immediate support lies at $37.81, followed by $37.41. The structure suggests silver is coiling before a decisive move, with upcoming candles around the $39.00 zone critical for direction. For now, the bias leans neutral with breakout potential.