Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Fed Cuts, Weak Jobs Data Keep Metals Buoyant

Market Overview

Gold edged lower in Asian trade but remained near record levels, with investor sentiment shaped by weak U.S. labor data and dovish Federal Reserve expectations. According to the latest ADP report, private-sector payrolls fell by 32,000 in September, the steepest monthly decline since March 2023.

August figures were also revised downward, underscoring continued weakness in the labor market. Traders are now pricing in two additional rate cuts before year-end, a move that supports demand for non-yielding assets such as gold.

Silver showed a modest pullback but continued to hold firm as expectations of looser U.S. monetary policy reinforced its appeal. “With the Fed leaning dovish, precious metals remain one of the few assets that offer resilience against macro uncertainty,” said a senior commodities strategist at a London-based fund.

Economic Data and Dollar Dynamics

The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing PMI ticked up from 48.7 to 49.1 in September, slightly easing concerns about industrial slowdown. However, the reading still signals contraction, limiting the dollar’s rebound after last week’s lows.

Analysts noted that any prolonged softness in U.S. economic data could strengthen the case for further policy easing, maintaining a supportive backdrop for both gold and silver.

Silver, with its dual role as an industrial and safe-haven metal, remains sensitive to manufacturing trends. While softer U.S. activity weighs on its industrial demand, its safe-haven role has been reinforced by broader macroeconomic concerns.

Market Outlook Amid Ongoing Risks

Geopolitical tensions and supply risks in global energy markets have added another layer of support for precious metals, prompting investors to keep gold and silver in focus. At the same time, the partial U.S. government shutdown has had a muted immediate impact, though potential delays in key releases such as the Nonfarm Payrolls report could heighten short-term volatility.

Overall, weaker jobs growth, dovish monetary expectations, and persistent geopolitical risks suggest dips in gold and silver may remain limited. Market participants continue to view both metals as strategic hedges in an environment where global uncertainties outweigh short-lived corrections in equity markets.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold hovers near $3,870, supported by dovish Fed bets, with resistance at $3,895–$3,928. Silver trades around $47.39, eyeing $47.82–$48.54, while support holds at $46.34.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is holding near $3,870, maintaining strength after recent gains. The price action is supported by an ascending trendline and the 50-EMA at $3,833, which continues to act as a dynamic floor.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 58, indicating balanced momentum—buyers have control, but conditions aren’t overheated. Immediate resistance lies at $3,895, followed by $3,910 and $3,928.

A clear break above these levels could open the way toward $3,940. On the downside, support sits at $3,839 and deeper at $3,821.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading near $47.39, holding firm within an ascending channel that reflects sustained bullish momentum. The price is supported by the 50-EMA at $46.56, while the 200-EMA at $44.10 underlines the broader uptrend.

The RSI at 59 signals steady buying pressure without yet reaching overbought conditions. Resistance is seen at $47.82 and $48.54, with a breakout potentially opening the path toward the $49.26 zone.

On the downside, support rests at $46.98 and $46.34. As long as silver stays above its rising trendline, the bias remains upward, with traders favoring dip-buying strategies while monitoring candlestick behavior near resistance.