Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Gold Defends $4,049 as Silver Holds $57.97 — Next Move?

Precious Metals Fundamentals Anchored by Official Buying and Supply Limits

As of June 29, the fundamental outlook for the gold and silver markets has been underpinned by central banks’ sustained purchases of gold and silver over the years and by the limited growth rate in new mine supply of the two metals, the data shows. This central bank activity has created a firm foundation for the gold and silver markets independent from what may occur with retail investors and speculative funds during certain time periods.

New production from gold mines has shown modest expansion at best in recent periods due to maturing deposits and rising development costs. The growth rate in silver production has also been slow as output increases by some mines in the coming years are expected to be modest.

Silver demand has also been supported by strong demand for industrial fabrication, while demand from the energy sector has risen sharply due to the growing importance of solar panels for energy production and demand for electrical and electronics equipment and for electric vehicles has also risen. Silver demand also includes investment demand from institutions through exchange-traded funds. Investment demand has also included gold investment demand.

In the longer term, gold and silver supply and demand balances depend also upon several macroeconomic and financial factors.

Gold Spot Holds $4,049 – 0.236 Fibonacci Support Holds on the 4H Chart

Gold Spot is trading on the $4,049 4h chart. Green bounce candles are holding the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement near $4,023 after a steep pullback from a $4,291 swing high. Green bounce candles are making higher lows from a $3,962 swing low to show absorption by buyers, while the RSI remains near 48.

The volume profile indicates the $4,023 to $4,091 area is a potential fair value opportunity. The $4,221 red 50ma is acting as resistance. The market is neutral to bullish from $4,023 within a larger downtrend from a $4,597 swing high. The Fibonacci confluence is supporting a bottom in Gold Spot from higher lows.

Trade Idea: Buy $4,049, targeting $4,122, with a stop-loss at $4,023.

Silver Spot Dips to $57.97 – Pivot Zone Defense on the 4H Chart

Silver Spot is trading on the $57.97 4h chart. Mixed candles are holding the blue pivot zone near $58.77 after a steep pullback from a $71.31 swing high. Green bounce candles are making higher lows to show absorption by buyers, while the RSI remains near 45.

The volume profile indicates the $58 to $60 area is a potential fair value opportunity. The market is neutral to bullish from the pivot zone within a larger downtrend from a $71.31 swing high. The next price target is the $61.47 to $65.23 Fibonacci confluence.

Trade Idea: Buy $57.97, targeting $61.47, with a stop-loss at $56.50.