Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Risk-On Sentiment Tests Safe-Haven Demand

Market Overview

Gold came under renewed pressure Friday as the U.S. dollar gained ground and equity markets extended their rally. Despite a partial U.S. government shutdown stretching into its third day, investors turned toward risk assets, diminishing demand for traditional safe havens.

The move followed Wall Street’s fresh record closes and upbeat sentiment across Asian markets, where strong earnings and resilient consumer data helped sustain risk-on momentum.

“Markets are looking past the shutdown and focusing on growth indicators,” said a commodities strategist at a London-based investment firm. “That shift has capped near-term demand for gold.”

Fed Rate Cut Bets Provide Support

Even with weaker safe-haven flows, expectations of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve continue to underpin the gold market. The ADP employment report showed private payrolls fell by 32,000 in September, the sharpest decline since March 2023, while August figures were revised to show a contraction rather than growth.

Traders are now pricing in two additional rate cuts before the end of the year, according to CME FedWatch data.

Lower borrowing costs typically weigh on the dollar and enhance the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold. With the shutdown threatening to delay critical data releases—including the Nonfarm Payrolls report—investors are increasingly relying on Fed commentary for direction.

Silver Holds Firm Amid Dovish Outlook

Silver traded modestly higher, supported by the exact dovish Fed expectations and broader geopolitical risks that have limited downside pressure across the precious metals sector. However, gains remain constrained by the strength of the equity market and the dollar’s rebound.

Analysts highlight silver’s dual role: industrial demand remains vulnerable to slowing global activity, while safe-haven buying is providing balance.

“Silver is more sensitive to manufacturing cycles, but right now, monetary policy and geopolitical dynamics are doing most of the heavy lifting,” noted a senior market analyst at a New York-based fund.

Outlook

Gold remains on track for a seventh consecutive weekly gain, with pullbacks seen as opportunities to accumulate. Yet the interplay between stronger equities, Fed policy bets, and ongoing geopolitical risks will dictate whether momentum can carry further. Silver is likely to mirror these trends, trading within a narrow range until clearer policy signals or economic data emerge.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold holds near $3,860 with resistance at $3,895, while silver trades around $47.28, supported at $46.69. Momentum signals consolidation, with upside bias if key resistance levels break.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading near $3,860, showing resilience after bouncing from support at $3,844 and holding above its ascending trendline. The 50-EMA ($3,841) is providing a key floor, keeping the bullish structure intact. Price action, however, faces strong resistance at $3,895, where repeated rejections signal heavy supply.

A decisive close above this barrier could open the path toward $3,916 and $3,944, while a breakdown below $3,844 risks a move toward $3,821 and $3,793.
Momentum remains neutral with the RSI at 51, suggesting consolidation before the next breakout.

For traders, the key lies in whether gold can sustain above its trendline, with a bullish bias favored on a confirmed close above $3,895.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading near $47.28, showing signs of recovery after bouncing from support at $46.69, which aligns with both the ascending trendline and the 50-EMA. This confluence zone has acted as a strong base, keeping the bullish bias intact. Resistance is now seen at $47.84, with a break above exposing the higher barrier at $48.08.

Candlestick action shows buyers stepping back in after a brief dip, supported by the RSI at 55, which indicates that momentum is tilting bullish without being overextended.

As long as silver holds above $46.69, the path of least resistance remains upward. A close below this level, however, could drag prices back toward $45.91 and $45.26.