Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Safe-Haven Demand Slips as Geopolitics Ease

Market Overview

Gold extended its decline in Asian trading on Wednesday, slipping to its lowest level in nearly three weeks as the U.S. dollar strengthened. The move follows last week’s hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index, which climbed at the fastest pace since 2022.

The data reinforced concerns that inflationary pressures remain sticky, prompting traders to scale back expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve easing.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now see a reduced probability of a September cut, with only gradual 25-basis-point reductions anticipated later this year. A firmer greenback has weighed heavily on non-yielding bullion, reducing its appeal against interest-bearing assets.

Geopolitical Tensions and Safe-Haven Demand

Silver mirrored gold’s weakness, trading lower as fading expectations of rapid Fed cuts and easing geopolitical risk dented safe-haven flows. Diplomatic momentum surrounding negotiations to end the conflict in Eastern Europe has lessened the urgency for investors to hold protective assets.

“Any sign of progress in peace talks typically shifts capital away from gold and silver toward riskier assets,” said a London-based metals strategist.

Although sporadic military activity continues, the prospect of structured negotiations has been enough to curb demand for safe-haven exposure in the near term.

Markets Eye Fed Minutes and Powell Speech

Attention now turns to the release of the Federal Reserve’s July policy meeting minutes and Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Investors are seeking clarity on the central bank’s inflation outlook and potential pace of monetary easing.

Powell’s remarks carry added weight as political pressure intensifies; former U.S. President Donald Trump recently criticized the Fed for delaying cuts, warning of potential fallout in the housing market.

Analysts suggest that any signal of a cautious stance could extend weakness in precious metals, while hints of accelerated easing might revive demand.
Both gold and silver remain under pressure, caught between a resilient dollar, shifting monetary policy expectations, and evolving geopolitical dynamics.

Until clearer direction emerges from the Fed and global diplomacy, investors are likely to tread cautiously in precious metals markets.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold is consolidating between $3,312 support and $3,357 resistance, while silver trades near $37.15 with downside risks toward $37.05–$36.22 unless buyers reclaim $37.40.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold steadied near $3,324 per ounce after bouncing from the $3,312 support zone, reflecting safe-haven demand amid persistent geopolitical tensions. Price action is consolidating below the 50- and 100-period EMAs ($3,336–$3,344), suggesting upside momentum remains capped unless bullion reclaims the $3,357 resistance.

RSI at 44 signals neutral momentum, keeping traders cautious. Broader uncertainty in global markets continues to anchor gold, with buyers defending key supports while upside progress faces repeated technical barriers.

Until a decisive breakout above $3,357, gold is likely to remain range-bound between $3,312 support and $3,357 resistance in the short term.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver extended declines to $37.15 per ounce, slipping under key support at $37.40, as technical selling pressure intensified. The metal now trades well below its 50- and 100-period EMAs ($37.80–$37.89), reinforcing a short-term bearish bias.

The next support rests near $37.05, with deeper losses exposing $36.67 and $36.22. RSI at 34 signals oversold conditions, suggesting a potential pause in the selloff, but momentum remains weak unless silver reclaims $37.40 resistance.

Broader geopolitical unease continues to underpin safe-haven interest, though recent breakdowns show sellers in control unless a rebound emerges above $37.80.