Increasing Demand Hints at Uptrend for Natural Gas Prices

Natural Gas Forecast Video for 07.08.23 by Bruce Powers

Natural gas shows additional minor bullish signs today as it rallies above Thursday’s high to reach a high of 2.62. This is the second day in a row where there is a higher daily high and low, indicating increasing demand and the early signs of an uptrend. Whether natural gas continues higher in the short-term remains to be seen and we will be watching for new clues. The next sign of strength will be on a daily close above yesterday’s high of 2.59. At the time of this writing, it looks like natural gas may end today below that price level. If it closes above 2.59 today, then the bullish signal is confirmed.

Potential Resistance Zones from 2.69 to 2.79 with the 100-Day EMA at 2.72

If the bounce turns into a sustainable rally, it will encounter several potential resistance zones on the way up. Let’s look at it as a range since different indicators identify a similar price zone. The resistance zone starts from around this week’s high of 2.69 and goes up to the most recent swing high of 2.79 (C). The 100-Day EMA and downtrend line are around 2.72. Notice that the two lines have just about converged to identify the same possible resistance level. Also, 2.71 marks the crossover of the rising and falling lines.

Decisive Rally Above 2.72 Gives Clearer Indication of Strength

What this indicates is that a decisive rally above 2.72 will provide the first bullish signal for a breakout above the trendline and 100-Day EMA. They identify dynamic resistance of the trend. At that point the chance for a continuation higher to above the 2.79 swing high increases.

Relationship to 100-Day EMA Provides Clues

A decisive daily close above the 100-Day EMA would provide a clear change in recent history. Over the past couple of months natural gas has made roughly three clear attempts (upswings) to breakout above the 100-Day line. During those attempts it managed to close above the line several times after quickly being smacked down at resistance. You can see how resistance was seen at or a little above the line.

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