iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) Price Forecast: Bear Flag Breakdown Signals Lower Targets

Bear Flag Breakdown Triggers Renewed Selling

A clear bear flag pattern broke this week in the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). This spot Bitcoin ETF triggered the bearish continuation pattern on a drop through last week’s low of $49.40 on Thursday. Volume confirmed conviction of the breakout, and the result was a sharp selloff toward the bottom of the flag and prior trend low of $46.68.

That low was taken out on Friday, as IBIT fell to a new low of $46.37, its lowest price since early-April 2025. Although momentum had slowed following the breakdown, represented by the narrow range day, this week’s price action suggests an eventual continuation of the downtrend to test lower targets.

Weekly Structure Confirms Broader Bear Trend

The bearish scenario is supported by several technical elements. Starting with the bigger picture, the weekly chart shows a breakdown of support at the 50-week average in November, with the recent upswing establishing the first pullback reaction to test a prior trend support line resistance. Although the 50-week line wasn’t touched, price action represented the same dynamic, resulting in the beginning of the selloff that led to Friday’s low of $46.37. That low was hit 11 days after the $55.60 swing high that ended the counter-trend rally, while it took 35 days to advance to that level, reflecting selling pressure.

Downside Targets and Key Fibonacci Levels

IBIT is progressing lower in a classic bear trend. The trend structure was confirmed on Friday with a new trend low and a break of the 50-week average. Price structure suggests a broad support zone from around $43.00 to $39.75. But there is also a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $44.94 that should be watched as a decision area. A simple downside target derived from a 127.2% extension measurement is at $44.25, while the 161.8% (golden ratio) extension is inside the large structure price range at $41.17.

Resistance Zones Define Risk for Bearish Bias

Given the bearish technical evidence, bounces into resistance of the flag will likely be seen by traders as an opportunity to add to short positions in anticipation of a continuation of the bear trend. The bearish scenario remains valid unless there is a sustained rally above this week’s high of $51.31. Prior support at $49.32 is one price zone to watch for signs of resistance on a bounce.