MP Materials (MP) Price Forecast: $63.90 Breakout Could Ignite Upside Momentum

Inverse Head-and-Shoulders Forms at Long-Term Support

A small potential bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern is setting up in the daily chart for the stock of MP Materials Corp. (MP). It has formed at support of the 200-day moving average, which has continued to be tested following an initial bounce from a swing low of $49.76 at the beginning of the year. This developing pattern suggests that buyers may be attempting to defend long-term support after the recent correction from last year’s peak. MP Materials is a leading U.S.-based producer of rare-earth materials needed for high-performance magnets in EVs, wind turbines, and defense applications.

 Fibonacci Retracement Meets Prior Resistance Support

After reaching a peak of $100.25 in October, MP stock completed a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the upswing that began from the May swing low, resulting in a higher swing low. Support was further confirmed by the first successful test of the 200-day average since May 2025. In addition, that pullback from the 2025 peak found support near prior long-term resistance from the 2022 highs. This shows prior resistance being indicated as support. Such behavior is typically considered constructive within a developing bullish structure.

Trend Reversal Signals Begin to Emerge

The subsequent rally from the May swing low triggered a bullish trend reversal of a lower swing high at $66.20 from November. That was a sign of underlying strength that may be ready to reassert itself following a new bullish breakout signal. A lower swing high of $72.66 was generated from the advance, which provides a second point for the top downtrend line.

 Breakout Level to Watch

So, the current situation for MP stock is that it is sitting roughly between support around the 200-day moving average and resistance near the 100-day moving average and the neckline of the potential bullish reversal pattern. In addition, there is resistance near the existing trend structure and the downtrend line. Therefore, a decisive breakout of the inverse head and shoulders bottom would also confirm a recovery of those levels, increasing the potential significance of the breakout.

On Tuesday, MP reclaimed the 100-day moving average above $61.17, showing early signs of strength. A breakout of the head and shoulders bottom would trigger above two minor swing highs that define the neckline at $63.90. That would put MP above the downtrend line, and it is already above the 100-day average. A sustained move above that neckline would therefore reinforce the bullish case introduced earlier, confirming that buyers are regaining control after the consolidation near long-term support.

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