U.S. equities started September on the back foot, with all three major indexes in the red as trade uncertainty and surging bond yields weighed on sentiment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 373 points, or 0.8%, while the S&P 500 lost 1% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.2%, marking its first back-to-back 1% drop since April.
A federal appeals court ruled 7-4 that most of Trump’s tariffs were illegal, arguing that only Congress has the authority to impose sweeping levies. The tariffs will remain in effect for now, as Trump vowed to appeal to the Supreme Court. Investors are wary that a potential refund of billions in tariff revenue could pressure an already stretched fiscal outlook, pushing yields higher and weighing on equities.
Yields surged to start the month, with the 10-year climbing to 4.28% and the 30-year topping 4.98%. Analysts warned that a 30-year yield near 5% is a direct headwind for equity valuations, particularly in sectors that have led the market higher this year. Rising global yields also contributed to the selling pressure, further dampening risk appetite.
Technology was the biggest drag on Tuesday’s session. The Nasdaq 100 slipped below its 50-day moving average of 23,109. Nvidia lost nearly 3%, contributing more than 60 points to the index’s decline. Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet each fell over 1%, while Adobe and Lam Research dropped more than 3%.
Industrials and financials also struggled, losing 1.3% and 1.1% respectively, as higher yields raised funding cost concerns. Real estate was hit hardest, down nearly 2%, reflecting pressure from rising borrowing rates. Consumer discretionary slipped 1.1%, while materials and communication services each shed less than 1%.
A handful of names managed to gain despite the broad selloff. PepsiCo held steady, while Starbucks rose 1% and Netflix added 0.3%. Vertex Pharmaceuticals advanced more than 2%, while defensive plays in consumer staples showed relative strength. Gold miners also found support, with Newmont reaching levels last seen in April 2022.
History suggests September is a tough month for stocks, with the S&P 500 averaging a 4.2% drop over the past five years. Despite a strong August where the index added nearly 2% and hit five new all-time highs, strategists caution that recent gains could give way to profit-taking. Traders are now laser-focused on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which could determine the Fed’s next rate decision.
With tariff uncertainty unresolved and yields near multi-month highs, equities may struggle to regain momentum in early September. The jobs report is likely to be the deciding factor for Fed policy, meaning traders should expect volatility around labor market data. Until there’s clarity on both tariffs and rates, the S&P 500 faces resistance near recent highs while downside risk remains elevated.
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James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.