Nasdaq Index, Dow Jones, S&P 500 News: Tech Giants’ Earnings, Fed Set to Shape Market Outlook

Key Points

• U.S. stock futures mixed in pre-market trading.
• Major tech firms’ earnings pivotal for market mood.
• Fed’s rate decision and labor data highly anticipated.

Pre-Market Trends Mixed

In the pre-market session, U.S. stock futures showed mixed signals as Wall Street braced for a significant week, marked by several key tech earnings, the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates, and the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report.

At 10:39 GMT, blue chip Dow futures are trading 38233.00, down 35.00 or -0.09%. Benchmark S&P 500 Index futures are at 4916.75, up 0.50 or +0.01% and tech-weighted Nasdaq-100 Index futures are trading 17559.75, up 32.75 or +0.19%.

Last Week’s Performance

The markets experienced moderate gains last week, driven by positive economic data. However, the uptick was somewhat restrained due to disappointing earnings from tech giants like Intel and Tesla.

Earnings Week in Focus

This week is critical for the earnings season, with major tech companies such as Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet set to report. Their results are expected to significantly impact market sentiments. Investors will also be closely monitoring the quarterly earnings reports of key Dow components such as Boeing and Merck.

Earnings Highlights

• Alphabet is expected to show a substantial year-over-year increase in earnings.
• Microsoft’s focus on AI advancements is a key area to watch.
• Amazon’s earnings are anticipated to demonstrate strong growth, especially in AWS.
• Apple’s upcoming earnings report is likely to influence its trajectory in 2024.

Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Outlook

The Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting is a central focus, with investors expecting the rates to remain unchanged. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, there’s currently only a 3% likelihood of a rate cut at the Fed’s March meeting. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is almost certain to maintain the current rates, as evidenced by the 97% probability assigned by traders in the fed funds futures market. This conservative stance by the Fed is critical for market strategies and investor expectations.

Upcoming Economic Data

Key labor market reports scheduled for release this week include the JOLTs job openings, ADP’s private payrolls, and the crucial nonfarm payrolls and unemployment figures. These reports are expected to provide further insights into the economic impact of interest rate policies.

Short-Term Market Forecast

The market is cautiously optimistic, balancing encouraging earnings forecasts with the Federal Reserve’s expected policy stance. The outlook remains mildly bullish, contingent on the forthcoming economic data and the Federal Reserve’s guidance.

Technical Analysis

E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are cautiously higher on Monday after shrugging off an earlier loss. This choppy trade could continue throughout the session with most of the major players like institutions and mutual funds on the sidelines ahead of the Fed and major tech company earnings releases.

Technically, the main trend is up with the benchmark index trading well above the 50-day moving average at 4742.67 and the 200-day moving average at 4529.10.

There is no resistance although the buying dried up at 4934.25 last week. On the downside, the index remains sustceptible to a near-term break into minor support at 4808.25.

Overall, sentiment is bullish, but with the index at a lofty level, there is always the question about whether investors will continue to buy strength or wait for a pullback into support.