Natural Gas and Oil Analysis: Market Focus on OPEC+ Decisions

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Published: Nov 30, 2023, 13:03 GMT+00:00

Natural gas's subtle gain mirrors market caution, with eyes on pivotal resistance levels and evolving energy demand narratives.

Quick Fundamental Outlook

Oil prices remained steady on Thursday, with the market’s attention fixed on the imminent OPEC+ meeting where discussions about potential supply cuts for 2024 are expected to take center stage. Brent crude nudged up to $83.80 a barrel, while the U.S. WTI inched higher to $78.41.

The energy sector anticipates OPEC+, including Russia, to consider significant production reductions, potentially tightening global supplies. However, the upcoming U.N. climate conference in Dubai and recent discord over output quotas among African producers have cast a shadow over the meeting’s outcome.

Analysts suggest that while immediate price hikes may result from further cuts, the long-term effects remain uncertain amid fluctuating inventory levels and high-interest rates that could suppress demand. Adding to the complex outlook is China’s continuing economic slowdown, highlighted by another month of shrinking factory activity.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) Chart

Natural gas futures exhibited a modest gain of 1.22%, with prices nudging to $2.80 on November 30, amid a broader market contemplation of energy demand prospects.

The commodity’s rise remains tempered, hovering below the pivot point of $2.87, indicating a delicate interplay between current valuations and investor sentiment. The RSI at 39 suggests the potential for upward movement has room before reaching overbought conditions. Yet, NG’s proximity to the 50-day EMA of $2.81 could signal a tenuous bullish trend.

As traders look ahead, resistance levels at $3.00 await as the next litmus test for sustained bullish behavior, with the potential to climb higher if market conditions align.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Chart

US oil prices edged upward by 1.09% to $78.77 on November 30, reflecting a cautiously optimistic sentiment in the energy markets. Technical indicators signal a bullish stance as prices pivot above the $78.40 mark, with potential resistance at $79.85.

Further bullish confirmation is suggested by the Relative Strength Index at 68—nearing overbought territory—and prices maintaining above the 50-day EMA of $76.66.

The breakout from a downward channel hints at a continuation of the upward trend. If this momentum is sustained, US oil could soon challenge higher resistance levels, with $81.04 and $82.33 as key targets in the short term.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Oil Chart

UK oil has advanced with a 1.3% increase to $83.48 on the last day of November, as the market’s pulse quickens in anticipation of OPEC+ decisions. This uptick situates the commodity firmly above the day’s pivot point of $83.19, paving the path toward immediate resistance levels at $85.03.

Technical indicators, including a Relative Strength Index of 66, suggest growing bullish sentiment without breaching overbought territory. Additionally, the price standing tall above the 50-day EMA of $81.46 corroborates the uptrend.

A symmetrical triangle pattern’s breakout reinforces this optimism, indicating potential for continued gains. Traders now watch if this momentum can carry UK oil beyond $83.15, setting sights on resistance tests up to $89.36 in forthcoming sessions.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.