Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Fundamentals Return as Truce Holds — WTI $92 or Brent $104 Next?

Oil and Natural Gas Markets Show Signs of Stabilising as Ceasefire Looks Set to Hold

Crude oil benchmarks didn’t get much of a push either way on May 8th, 2026, as it’s now a month since the US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire which has so far stuck & there’s been a bit of a return of tanker traffic through the strait. The deal has been chipping away at the risks that really spooked investors back in March & early April – the ones that made prices swing wildly because of world politics – and that’s allowed markets to go back to looking at the stuff that usually matters : how much oil & gas we’re actually using.

WTI and Brent are now being driven much more by normal stuff rather than all the latest news. Production in the US is still strong, the group of oil producers from OPEC and elsewhere (called OPEC+) are tweaking their output a bit, and people are slowly getting back to work in areas where things were disrupted. The global oil stash is no longer running out as fast as it was.

Natural gas prices have been pretty steady too. Stores are filling up in the US and Europe because of the decent weather we’ve had so far this spring, and that’s helped to ease up on the need for as much gas to be shipped out of the places where it’s made in the Middle East. The ceasefire has also made things a bit easier for the big gas ships coming out of Qatar and elsewhere.

Now investors are waiting to see what the US’s next storage reports will show and when OPEC+ will meet next to work out its next move. Even though the ceasefire has taken the immediate risk of a big supply shock off the cards, experts are still warning that this deal is far from solid. If things go south diplomatically then the markets could quickly get shaky again.

Natural Gas Futures Bounces Back to $2.81 – and Starts to Show Signs of Life Again

Natural Gas (NG) futures are currently trading at $2.812 on the 2 hour NYMEX after a pretty sharp bounce with green candles reclaiming that red MA after testing $2.75 and all we can see is bulls coming in and taking control. The price is respecting that lower white descending channel but is showing a bit of bulls rejection at that 61.8% level and RSI has climbed above 55 to confirm the momentum is back on our side.

The higher lows from May 6 are forming inside that short term base and overhead resistance is sitting at $2.85 and then $2.936 channel ceiling. The volume is clearly backing the upside move and shows that there are more buyers than sellers in the market. The structure of the market is looking better again above $2.78 while it is still fighting that multi-week downtrend.

Trade Idea: Buy at $2.812 and see if you can get to $2.85, stop at $2.76.

WTI Crude Oil Slides Below $95 – Channel Breakdown is Now Accelerating

WTI crude is currently trading at $94.82 on the 2 hour chart after a pretty decisive breakdown below that blue ascending channel floor and the red MA which is sitting around $96. All we can see are bearish engulfs with lower highs confirmed from that $95.26 swing high.

Price is now accelerating down towards that $92.74 Fib support zone after the higher lows structure failed. RSI has dropped below 45 which confirms the momentum shift but the white descending trendline from those May highs is still there capping any recovery. The volume profile makes it clear that sellers are in control and that $95 is now a failed fair value area.

Trade Idea: Sell at $94.80 and aim for $92.74, stop at $95.50.

Brent Crude Oil Slumps back to $100 – testing the old Blue Channel floor

Brent is currently trading at $100.52 on the 2 hour chart after a near-immediate rejection from $100.95 on the steep blue channel – basically we see the price pulling back in to test the lower channel line and that red 50 period MA which is sitting around $100 – and all we’re seeing is those big lower wicks which shows buyers are still in the game. The higher lows from May 5 are still intact, and that distribution that’s been going on in recent days just hasn’t managed to break the structure.

We’ve got a fib retracement from that swing low in April and that 38.2% level at $99.50 is now acting as a bit of a support for the price. RSI is still hanging around 48 and we don’t have any bearish divergences so far. On the other hand, there’s a big resistance cluster up above at $101.50 – $104.28 channel top, showing where the sellers will be waiting. The volume profile is clearly marking $100 as a critical pivot in this market.

Trade Idea: Buy at $100.50 and see if you can get to $104.00, stop at $99.20.