Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Market Stalls as Rising Stockpiles Clash With Supply Risks

Market Overview

Oil markets remain under pressure after U.S. industry data showed a 4.45 million-barrel jump in crude inventories, alongside increases in gasoline (+1.55 million barrels) and distillates (+577,000 barrels).

The figures reinforced oversupply concerns, even as geopolitical tensions kept prices from sliding further. Traders are weighing rising global refinery margins and Europe’s strongest diesel crack spreads since September 2023 against signs that crude output still exceeds demand.

Sanctions-driven supply risks and recent disruptions to key energy infrastructure have added a layer of uncertainty, leaving oil range-bound as markets await official U.S. inventory data expected to show a modest draw.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas is trading around $4.38, holding just above the lower boundary of its ascending channel on the 4-hour chart. Price recently bounced off support near $4.23, where the trendline and the 200-EMA converge—an area that has consistently attracted buyers through November.

Momentum remains subdued, with the RSI hovering near 42, showing mild bearish pressure but no signs of extreme oversold conditions. The 20-EMA sits above price, limiting upside attempts and signaling a soft short-term bias.

A break above $4.53 would indicate renewed momentum and open the path toward $4.67 and $4.86. If natural gas slips below $4.23, the next supports sit at $4.09 and $3.93. For now, the trend remains constructive as long as the channel holds.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude is trading around $60.40, holding inside a tightening symmetrical triangle on the 4-hour chart. Price continues to respect both trendlines, with higher lows building support near $59.20 and lower highs capping momentum around $61.40. This compression suggests a directional move is approaching.

WTI remains below the 200-EMA, showing broader pressure, while the 20-EMA is acting as short-term resistance. RSI is hovering near 55, pointing to steady but limited momentum without signs of exhaustion.

A breakout above $61.40 could trigger a move toward $62.19 and $62.93. If sellers regain control, a drop below $59.20 may expose $58.13 and $57.11. For now, oil stays range-bound until the triangle resolves.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is trading near $64.70, sitting inside a tightening symmetrical triangle that has been building for nearly a month. Price continues to compress between rising support near $63.35 and descending resistance around $65.70, signalling that a decisive move is approaching.

Brent trades just under the 200-EMA, showing that broader momentum is still capped, while the 20-EMA is offering short-term lift. The RSI has pushed toward 58, showing improving momentum without entering overheated territory.

A breakout above $65.70 would shift sentiment and open the path toward $66.73 and possibly $68.02. If Brent fails at resistance, a pullback toward $63.35 or even $62.34 becomes likely. Until the triangle resolves, Brent remains in consolidation with a breakout expected soon.