Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Middle East Tensions Underpin Energy Sector

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Updated: Apr 12, 2024, 11:09 UTC

Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East propel oil prices higher, despite underlying concerns of slower U.S. rate cuts impacting weekly trends.

Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Middle East Tensions Underpin Energy Sector

Market Overview

Oil prices increased on Friday due to rising tensions in the Middle East, potentially disrupting supply from the oil-rich region. Despite this uptick, oil is poised for a weekly decline influenced by the reduced likelihood of U.S. interest rate cuts this year.

The situation escalated following a suspected Israeli airstrike on Iran’s embassy in Damascus, with Iran vowing retaliation. Such geopolitical risks, alongside OPEC+’s supply cuts and improving global economic conditions, have significantly impacted oil price forecasts.

However, ongoing U.S. inflation concerns temper these gains, suggesting a cautious outlook for the oil market.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) Price Chart

Today’s analysis of Natural Gas (NG) reflects a decrease, with the price falling to $1.90, down by 0.52%. The pivot point stands at $1.89, critical for maintaining a bullish stance. Resistance levels are set at $1.95, $2.00, and $2.04, suggesting possible ceilings for upward movement.

On the downside, support is identified at $1.84, with additional layers at $1.78 and $1.72 that could arrest further declines. Both the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average at $1.94 and the 200-Day EMA at $1.89 underline this pivot, indicating potential price stability.

However, a break below $1.89 could lead to a sharp selling trend, warranting vigilant market monitoring.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

Today’s technical outlook for USOIL indicates a slight increase, with the current price marked at $85.60, up by 0.13%. The critical pivot point stands at $85.44, setting a baseline for bullish sentiment above this threshold.

Resistance levels are identified at $86.63, $87.63, and $88.53, respectively, offering potential hurdles in upward movement. Support levels to watch are $84.58, $83.57, and $82.54, providing cushions against downward trends.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average at $85.74 slightly surpasses the pivot, suggesting underlying strength, while the 200-Day EMA at $84.00 further bolsters support.

A break below the pivot point could trigger a notable selling trend, highlighting the need for vigilance around this key level.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Price Chart

Today’s assessment of UKOIL reveals a modest uptick to $90.20, a gain of 0.06%. The established pivot point at $89.99 marks a crucial juncture; trading above this level suggests a bullish outlook. The chart shows resistance levels at $90.92, $91.90, and $92.89 that may challenge further advances.

Conversely, support is positioned at $89.15, with further buffers at $87.89 and $86.37 potentially stabilizing any declines. The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average closely aligns with the pivot at $90.01, reinforcing current levels, while the 200-Day EMA at $88.02 supports a longer-term bullish trend.

Should prices fall below $89.99, a sharp selling trend could be triggered, necessitating cautious monitoring.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.