Crude Oil Price Forecast: WTI and Brent Face Weak Demand Concerns

Oil prices eased on Thursday due to the growing concerns over demand. OPEC reduced the forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 580,000 bpd. The IEA also expects the oil consumption to drop to 1.6 million bpd this year. The higher fuel prices and supply disruption after the US-Iran war have reduced the consumption. These lower demand forecasts may pressure oil prices in near term.

The sharp increase in the U.S. crude inventories added to negative outlook. The chart below shows that the commercial crude stocks increased 17.4 million barrels to 424.4 million barrels for the week that ended Aug. 7. This was the biggest weekly gain since January 2023. The increase in inventories suggests that the supply is exceeding the demand. This may further push the downward pressure in oil prices in the near term.

But the conflict in the Middle East keeps the prices volatile and supported. The U.S. and Iran have not yet made any progress in talks to restore the interim peace pact. The concerns over supply have also been exacerbated by attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Due to security concerns, some vessels are now switching off their tracking signals. This makes the measurement of real supplies more difficult. Therefore, the weaker demand and rising oil inventories may limit the oil rallies but any additional oil supply shock could keep the prices high.

WTI Oil Price Eyes $97 Breakout Before a Move to $120

WTI crude oil has been trading within the descending channel pattern since its peak in July 2008. The oil price hit a high of $119.48 in March 2026 after the U.S.-Iran war but failed to close above the $106 area on a monthly basis and dropped lower to mark a low of $67.07 in July 2026.

The drop from March to July was significant, but the key reversal candle in July indicates that the price remains within a wide range after the U.S.-Iran war. This range indicates strong volatility in the oil market. A break above $106 will likely break the descending channel pattern and open the door for strong rally towards the $150 area.

On the other hand, a break below the $60 area will negate the outlook and open the door for a strong drop. The RSI indicator remains above the midline, which indicates positive pressure and a continuation of upside momentum in the oil market.

The short term outlook for WTI crude oil remained constructive during the consolidation in June and July. But the price must break above the $97 area to open the door for a strong rally towards $120 again. The immediate resistance in the WTI price remains at $87. A break above $87 will push the WTI market towards the $93.80 and $97 region.

Brent Oil Price Targets $100 Above the $92 Resistance

Brent crude oil is consolidating below the $92 level after rebounding from the $81 support. As long as the price remains below the $92 area, the possibility of strong consolidation is high. A break above $92 will push Brent crude oil towards the $100 region.

The price has staged strong rally to climb above both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, which indicates positive momentum. The broader trend indicates a recent cooling-off from earlier yearly highs with the market attempting to establish a stable trading range.

The weekly chart for Brent crude oil also shows a strong reversal from the $80 support, whereby the price hit a high of $92.90. The RSI indicator remains above the midline, which points to higher levels and increases the possibility of an upside breakout above $100. However, the oil price must remain above the $80 level to maintain the bullish momentum.

The weekly chart shows very constructive price action as the 50-day SMA is crossing above the 200-day SMA around $80, which points towards the continuation of the positive trend.

Bottom Line

The weaker demand forecasts and rising U.S. crude inventories may pressure the oil market in the short term. But the recent escalation in the conflict in the Middle East continues to support the market as further attacks could disrupt oil supplies. WTI oil must break above $87 and $97 to keep the rally towards $120. Brent oil must break above $92 to reach the key $100. WTI remains positive above the $60 area while Brent must hold above $80 to maintain the bullish momentum. The weak demand may limit oil rallies but supply risks could keep prices high and volatile.

Read more: WTI and Brent Rise as U.S.-Iran Deal Hopes Fade