Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: OPEC+ Output Priced In, Eyes on Jobs Data and Dollar

Market Overview

Oil futures remained range-bound Wednesday, with Brent crude fluctuating between $66.34 and $69.05 per barrel since June 25, as traders balanced expectations of higher OPEC+ output, weaker U.S. economic signals, and easing geopolitical tensions.

An unexpected 680,000-barrel rise in U.S. crude inventories, despite peak summer demand, added to mixed sentiment. The dollar’s drop to a 3.5-year low offered mild support, potentially increasing energy affordability for international buyers.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ plans to boost output by 411,000 bpd in July appear priced in. With geopolitical risks subdued and economic indicators unclear, oil and gas prices may continue consolidating ahead of key U.S. payroll data.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas futures are trading at $3.44 after finding support near $3.30. Price action shows a minor bounce, but the broader trend remains under pressure, with both the 50-EMA ($3.52) and 200-EMA ($3.73) acting as overhead resistance.

A descending trendline from the June 20 peak continues to cap recovery attempts. The next immediate test is at $3.47, where the price intersects with the trendline and prior horizontal resistance.

A clean breakout above this zone could open the door toward $3.58 and $3.75. Failure to clear this level may result in the price revisiting the $3.30–$3.18 support band. For now, the setup reflects a fragile recovery inside a larger downtrend.

WTI Oil Price Forecas

WTI crude oil continues to coil within a symmetrical triangle, with price capped near $65.95 and supported above $63.98. The structure reflects tightening consolidation after the sharp drop from $77.12.

Price action is pressing against descending resistance while holding an ascending support line from June’s low at $63.96. The 50-period EMA at $65.63 acts as dynamic resistance, while the 200-period EMA at $66.95 remains untouched since the breakdown.

A decisive close above $65.95 may trigger momentum toward $67.07 and $68.99, aligning with Fibonacci retracement levels. Conversely, a breakdown below $63.98 could expose the $62.80 and $61.50 levels. Until then, the market remains range-bound, awaiting a breakout.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude oil is trading near $67.15, consolidating just below the $67.48 resistance after a steep correction from above $77. Price has carved out higher lows since late June, forming a rising trendline that intersects with horizontal support at $65.92.

This structure suggests a base may be forming. However, upside momentum remains capped by the 50-period EMA at $68.83 and the 200-period EMA at $68.95, both of which are sloping downward. For bullish continuation, Brent must clear $67.48 with conviction, opening a path toward $68.95 and $70.59.

A drop below the trendline support would shift focus to $65.92 and $64.21. Until then, price action signals indecision amid broader macro uncertainty.