Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: OPEC+ Uncertainty and Export Shifts Stir Market Volatility

Market Overview

Geopolitical tensions and evolving trade dynamics are shaping a cautious tone across global energy markets. WTI crude futures slipped by more than 1% on Friday as the potential return of Venezuelan oil to international markets weighed on sentiment.

U.S. policy adjustments may enable PDVSA partners, including major producers, to lift exports by more than 200,000 barrels per day, easing constraints in the heavier crude segment.

Earlier in the week, temporary export disruptions in the Black Sea and Turkey had provided short-lived support. With trade negotiations ongoing and OPEC+ unlikely to introduce fresh measures, oil and natural gas markets remain sensitive to shifting geopolitical undercurrents.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas futures are trading at $3.095, holding just above the $3.058 support level. Price action has stabilized following a steep selloff, but upside remains limited as long as it stays below the 50-EMA ($3.181) and 100-EMA ($3.267).

Fibonacci retracement zones show resistance at $3.191 and $3.275, while stronger supply clusters sit around $3.342 and $3.409. The current structure shows a base forming between $3.057 and $3.191, suggesting buyers are defending this zone.

A break below $3.057 could expose $2.973 and $2.902 next. For bulls to regain control, a decisive move above $3.275 is needed. Momentum remains weak, with the market in a state of consolidation, awaiting fresh direction.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is trading at $65.00, testing key support near the ascending trendline and horizontal base at $64.95. The price remains below both the 50-EMA ($65.87) and 100-EMA ($66.22), reflecting short-term bearish pressure.

A descending trendline from the July highs continues to cap upward attempts, while resistance stands at $66.56 and $67.64. If $64.95 fails to hold, the following support levels are $63.98 and $63.01. A bounce from the current zone could initiate a retest of $66.50, but broader momentum remains weak.

Price action remains compressed within a tightening wedge, suggesting a directional breakout is likely soon. The bearish bias holds unless bulls reclaim the $66.56 area with volume confirmation.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is trading at $68.29, just above ascending trendline support that aligns with $68.00. The price remains below the 50-EMA ($68.89) and 100-EMA ($68.93), indicating bearish control in the short term. A descending triangle is forming, with resistance near $68.94 and $69.80.

The repeated failure to reclaim the EMAs highlights underlying weakness, and a close below the $68.00 support could expose $67.68 and $66.75. Conversely, a rebound from the trendline would bring $68.94 back into focus.