Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI Under $71 While Brent Tests $73 — NatGas Channel Momentum?

Oil and Gas Fundamentals Highlight Supply Expansion and Balanced Demand

As of June 29, Oil: Global markets remain balanced between disciplined OPEC+ supply and non-OPEC supply growth. Refinery runs are at high levels in consuming regions, supporting the oil demand that continues to underpin transportation and feedstock requirements. Seasonal trends support the summer product demand, and stocks in strategic hubs are balanced.

Oil U.S.: Oil supply is mixed in the U.S., with inventories remaining near minimal levels in several operational hubs and refined product demand is resilient.

Natural Gas: U.S. gas supply continues to set record highs and new supply is primarily driven by associated supply to the oil industry and dedicated development. LNG is still operating near capacity, and storage continues to refill into summer as stocks remain above historical averages.

Natural Gas Futures Rise to $3.251 – Green Channel Momentum on the 4H Chart

Natural gas on the 4H NYMEX Timeframe at 3.251. The mixed candles continue to sit comfortably above the red 50 period moving average near $3.18 in a blue channel. The bullish rejection candle wicks from the $3.099 swing low shows that the buyers remain in control of the price on dips. The relative strength index (RSI) shows a neutral trend at the 52 mark.

The $3.12 level shows as strong support in the volume profile. The 3.229 to 3.251 level shows as a Fibonacci extension area and any further price expansion on the high will target the $3.330 area. The structure shows a bullish price action off the $3.099 support as long as the price continues to produce higher highs and higher lows on the dips.

Trade Idea: Buy $3.251, targeting $3.330, with a stop-loss at $3.12.

WTI Crude Oil Dives to $70.01 – Green Triangle Breakdown on the 1D Chart

WTI on the 1D Timeframe at $70.01. The red continuation candles closed out the green triangle at support near $85.75 off rejection at the red 50 period moving average. The red bearish engulfing candles have established lower highs which shows strong distribution off the $104.45 high confirming that the sellers are in full control of the price. Price is now rapidly targeting the 63.01 to 56.12 Fibonacci Extension. The relative strength index (rsi) shows strong bearish momentum after falling below the level of 40.

The 78 to 85 level shows as a failed fair value in the volume profile. The white trendline which represents a descending price structure continues to contain the price after the breakdown. The structure remains very bearish under 85.75 as a continuation from the 116 high. Sellers are in full control because price is showing a series of lower highs and lower lows.

Trade Idea: Sell $70.01, targeting $63.01, with a stop-loss at $72.50.

Brent Crude Oil Holds $73.24 – Blue Descending Channel Floor on the 4H Chart

Brent on the 4H Timeframe at $73.24. The mixed green and red candles have tested the blue descending channel floor near 72.48 off rejection at the red 50 period moving average near $78.27. The bullish rejection candle wicks show the buyers are absorbing price near support and not showing much downside pressure. The relative strength index (RSI) shows a neutral trend at the 50 mark.

The $74 to $76 level shows as an emerging fair value in the volume profile. The next level of resistance sits between $76.08 and $78.27. The structure shows a neutral to bullish price action on the floor as long as the price continues to produce higher lows.

Trade Idea: Buy $73.24, targeting $76.08, with a stop-loss at $72.00.