Natural Gas Forecast: Signs of Bullish Reversal Point to Higher Prices

Natural Gas Forecast Video for 06.06.23 by Bruce Powers

Natural gas triggers a bullish breakout of the inside day from Friday, before finding resistance at the 34-Day EMA and downtrend line. The high for the day was 2.32. Once that high was hit, natural gas backed off a bit. However, it is on track to close above Friday’s high at 2.23. A close above it would provide a slightly more bullish take than if the close is below that high.

Daily Close Above 2.23 Confirms Strength

A daily close above today’s high confirms a short-term bullish outlook as that would trigger a continuation of today’s advance. Also, that would put natural gas above both the downtrend line and 34-Day EMA. The 34-Day EMA is more significant though as it covers a longer time frame. It has been mentioned more than once in recent weeks as a moving average to watch as it has marked support or resistance on multiple occasions, and it did again today. Today’s price behavior signals a completion of the current retracement bottom and opens the door to higher prices for natural gas.

Past Two Rallies Leave Clues

Counting from the swing low at 1.95 on April 14, natural gas has had two rallies. One, from that low and the other from the 2.03 low on May 5. The first advance was up 29.7% in 10 days, and the second saw the price of natural gas rise by 32.2% in 10 days. Notice that there is a similarity between price and time connecting the two moves. Therefore, this next rally could see a similar move in both or either price or time before it completes.

Price and Time Symmetry Likely

Tomorrow will be day three of the rally so if time lines up there are eight more days to go at a minimum before at least a temporary top to this advance. Natural gas will match reach a 29% advance off last week’s low at 3.01. If this current move shows symmetry with the prior two advances, natural gas could easily reach the 3.01 target before a significant retracement, and it should happen by June 15.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.