Natural Gas News: Market Eyes $3.125 as Key Level Ahead of EIA Storage Report Today

EIA Storage Report in Focus as Natural Gas Holds Key Technical Level

U.S. natural gas futures are treading water ahead of Thursday’s pivotal EIA storage report, with traders zeroed in on the 50-day moving average at $3.125. The market’s reaction to this technical level will be critical in determining direction into the close, as it may either trigger renewed bullish momentum or open the door to fresh downside pressure.

At 12:25 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $3.098, down $0.002 or -0.06%.

Can EIA Storage Build Justify Current Price Levels?

Traders expect an inventory build of +81 Bcf for the week ended September 12, well above the five-year average of +74 Bcf. This projection comes after last week’s bearish surprise, where the EIA reported a +71 Bcf injection versus consensus of +68 Bcf. That figure also came in above the five-year average of +56 Bcf, reinforcing that storage remains comfortable heading into the heating season. As of September 5, inventories were 6.0% above the five-year average despite being 1.3% lower year-over-year.

The elevated injection estimate has weighed on prices, erasing early-week gains that had been driven by hotter-than-expected weather forecasts. Late-summer heat is expected to persist through the end of September, with Atmospheric G2 projecting above-normal temperatures from September 22 through early October—supportive for gas demand due to increased electricity usage. This could limit the pace of storage builds, but not enough to offset bearish sentiment if injections continue to overshoot seasonal norms.

Production and LNG Exports Add Mixed Signals

U.S. dry gas production remains near record highs. On Wednesday, Bloomberg NEF estimated lower-48 dry gas output at 106.0 Bcf/day, up 5.0% year-over-year. The EIA recently revised its 2025 production forecast higher by 0.2% to 106.63 Bcf/day, underlining that supply-side pressure remains a key hurdle for bulls.

However, LNG exports are climbing as well, with net flows to export terminals at 15.4 Bcf/day on Wednesday—up 5.6% week-over-week. Electricity demand remains firm too, with Edison Electric Institute data showing a 0.83% year-over-year increase in output for the week ending September 13 and a 2.98% rise over the past 52 weeks. These demand-side metrics offer modest support, but traders remain focused on production and storage levels for now.

Will Technicals or Fundamentals Take the Driver’s Seat?

The 50-day moving average at $3.125 remains the technical battleground. A sustained break above could prompt a run toward resistance levels at $3.168, $3.198, and a breakout point at $3.238. On the downside, failure to hold above $3.125 could trigger a sharp pullback toward support between $2.947 and $2.887.

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Market Forecast: Bearish Bias Unless EIA Surprises

Given the strong supply profile and elevated storage expectations, the short-term outlook leans bearish. A surprise miss to the downside in today’s EIA print could spark a technical rally, but sustained upside requires more than weather-related demand. Traders should brace for downside tests unless the data breaks meaningfully from consensus.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.