Natural Gas Price Forecast: Critical Breakdown Looms as $2.99 Tested

Natural gas accelerated its corrective decline on Monday as it busted below several potential support areas, including the 200-Day MA, before reaching a low of $2.99. Regular readers will recognize that value as the low end of a potential support zone previously identified from $3.08 to $2.99. Natural gas continues to trade near the lows of the day at the time of this writing, which is currently $2.99.

The support zone included the completion of a falling ABCD pattern at $3.08, the 200-Day MA at $3.06, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3.03. The low end of the range at $2.99 is the higher swing low from late January. It marks a critical price level as a drop below $2.99 violates the higher swing low, which is part of the larger uptrend price structure.

Below 200-Day MA is Bearish

Since natural gas remains below the 200-Day MA, it looks likely to close below it today. That would confirm the bearishness indicated by today’s decline. However, the $2.99 level is the key as a daily close below it will trigger a bearish reversal of the uptrend that began from the higher swing low in August 2024. The price zone may yet hold and lead to a bullish reversal but if not, lower prices become a target. The high for today at $3.23 is key near-term resistance.

Further Weakening Points to Lower Channel Line

The current decline began following a failed upside breakout in early March of a rising parallel trend channel (purple lines), to a new trend high of $4.90 (A). Notice that there were three earlier channel breakout attempts beginning in late December. Each was met with resistance that led to a pullback of some degree. Once price bounces off one end of a channel there is the potential for it to head towards if not reach the other side.

For natural gas that would be the lower rising purple trendline. For now, the 127.2% projected target for the falling ABCD pattern at $2.79 can be used as a proxy for the line. There is also nearby the top trendline of a large symmetrical triangle pattern that begins from the 2023 peak at $3.64.

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