Natural Gas Price Forecast: Momentum Wavers Beneath Resistance Zone

Consolidation Tightens Beneath the 200-Day Average

Natural gas remained within a tightening consolidation range on Wednesday, struggling to sustain momentum near the 200-Day moving average. The market has traded mostly below that indicator since the July 21 breakdown, and today’s session showed sellers reasserting control. A bearish outside day pattern formed after price briefly reached $3.55—slightly above Tuesday’s high—before reversing sharply lower. By late trade, natural gas had dropped to $3.32, testing support near the 10-Day moving average and holding near session lows.

Double Top and Short-Term Support Levels in Focus

The lower high recorded today raises the potential for a double top bearish reversal if prices decline below Monday’s $3.30 low. Such a move would likely trigger additional selling pressure, especially as it coincides with a breakdown beneath the 10-Day average and tests of dynamic support along a long-term rising trendline. While the 10-Day average provides a short-term directional cue, a decisive close below the uptrend line would carry greater significance, confirming a shift in control toward sellers.

Downside Risk Builds if Trendline Support Breaks

Should natural gas fall beneath the uptrend line, the broader bearish structure – defined by a descending trend channel – could reassert dominance. That scenario opens the door to retests of the recent swing lows and key moving averages. The 20-Day average, currently near $3.13, offers interim support, followed by the 50-Day at $3.02. Importantly, an anchored volume-weighted average price (AVWAP) from a major prior pivot aligns near $2.97, reinforcing the significance of that support zone.

Bulls Eye a Recovery Above $3.59

Despite today’s weakness, buyers still have an opportunity to reclaim control. A move above the recent swing high at $3.59 would confirm a resumption of the short-term uptrend and reestablish momentum above the 200-Day average, now near $3.49. Such strength would invalidate the developing double top and signal that bullish forces remain intact. Until then, the market remains vulnerable to deeper retracements, with traders watching whether support near the 10-Day line and trendline can hold in the days ahead.

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