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Christopher Lewis
Natural Gas

Natural gas markets have fallen a bit during the trading session on Thursday, reaching towards the $1.70 level before pausing a bit. We are at the top of the gap from last week, so it does make some sense that we see some buyers in this area. I think this is a short-term buying opportunity on some type of bounce, but probably not a lot more than that as we are in the midst of trying to form some type of longer-term bottom. With that in mind, I think it makes quite a bit of sense that the market is very noisy. With that in mind, it does look as if we are trying to form another “higher low”, but that obviously takes a significant amount of effort.

NATGAS Video 22.05.20

Beyond that, we have to worry about whether or not there is going to be a surge in demand. Clearly, there is going to be a certain amount of bankruptcies in the United States, and this could help push the price of natural gas higher over the longer term as supply should dwindle a bit. Furthermore, a lot of traders out there are trying to figure out what the reopening of the economy could do for demand. Quite frankly, I think that is going to be a bit disappointing, but it is also very possible that we have oversold natural gas and that we need to do some type of rebalance like we are seeing in the WTI market right now. Ultimately, this is a market that is at extreme low so clearly there is much more room to the upside than down, although I would not get married to any long position here.

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