Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rebound But Trend Points to Lower Prices

No tropical weather is expected during the next 48-hours
David Becker
Natural gas daily chart, August 06, 2019

Natural gas prices rebounded on Tuesday from an oversold condition. Demand ticked higher as US LNG exports increased week over week according to a report from the Department of Energy. There are no tropical cyclones expected in the Atlantic Ocean or the Gulf of Mexico over the next 48-hours. The weather is expected to be cooler than normal over the next 6-10 and 8-14 days according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices rebounded on Tuesday after dropping to a fresh 6-year low on Monday. Short term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. The fast stochastic moved out of oversold territory after generating the crossover buy signal which reflects accelerating positive momentum. Medium-term momentum remains negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.

LNG Exports Rise

The EIA reports that US LNG exports increase week over week. Eleven LNG vessels with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 39 Bcf departed the United States between July 25 and July 31, according to EIA. One vessel was loading at the Sabine Pass terminal on Wednesday. In July, LNG exports leaving the US set another record, with 46 exported cargoes carrying an estimated 160 billion cubic feet of natural gas or 5.2 billion cubic feet per day Bcf per day. Commissioning of the first LNG trains at Elba Island is ongoing. On Wednesday, Kinder Morgan and Southern LNG Company, the developers of the Elba Island liquefaction facility, filed a request with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to introduce hazardous fluids to Train 2.

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