Natural gas gains ground as forecasts show that weather will get warmer by the end of June. Traders also prepare to switch from July contract to August contract.
If natural gas stays above the resistance level at $3.20 – $3.25, it will head towards the next resistance at $3.40 – $3.45. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
From a big picture point of view, natural gas needs stronger catalysts to gain sustainable upside momentum. The market has been choppy in June as traders reacted to fluctuations of weather forecasts, and it remains to be seen whether natural gas is ready to move higher.
WTI oil rebounds as traders focus on potential setbacks in U.S. – Iran negotiations.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that tolls in the Strait of Hormuz were unacceptable. He added that it did not matter how tolls would be called. According to Rubio, Iran charging tolls in the Strait of Hormuz would never be an acceptable condition of any deal.
In turn, Iran’s Parliament speaker Ghalibaf rejected Trump’s claim that unfrozen funds would be used to buy U.S. goods. He added that the only crop Iran was harvesting is what the U.S. had planted. According to Ghalibaf, this crop is “decades of mistrust”.
Recent comments suggest that both sides are trying to make a better deal for themselves. There’s also one point that is missing in recent comments on U.S. – Iran negotiations: Iran’s nuclear program, which was the key reason for the military operation against the country.
The market starts to realize that it is unrealistic to expect that the deal would be signed in the upcoming days. In this light, it’s not surprising to see that some traders are ready to buy the dip.
It should be noted that the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is rising, and Gulf producers rush to sell their oil. Most likely, oil markets will need major upside catalysts to gain sustainable upside momentum in this situation.
WTI oil failed to settle below the support level at $70.50 – $71.00 and is trying to settle above the $72.00 level. In case this attempt is successful, WTI oil will head towards the resistance level at $76.50 – $77.00.
On the support side, a move below the $70.50 level will push WTI oil towards the support at $66.50 – $67.00.
Brent oil moved away from multi-month lows as traders rushed to buy the dip when the market reached pre-war levels.
If Brent oil stays above the $75.00 level, it will head towards the resistance level at $77.00 – $77.50. A move above the $77.50 level will push Brent oil towards the psychologically important $80.00 level. RSI has recently moved out of the oversold territory, so there is plenty of room to gain upside momentum in the near term.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.