Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – WTI Oil Dives 15% On Ceasefire

Natural Gas Tests New Lows

Natural gas is losing ground as traders focus on the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after the ceasefire in the Middle East.

From the technical point of view, natural gas declined below the support level at $2.75 – $2.80 and is trying to settle below the $2.70 level. In case this attempt is successful, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the $2.50 – $2.55 range. RSI is in the moderate territory, and there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

On the upside, natural gas needs to settle back above the $2.80 level to have a chance to gain upside momentum. A move above $2.80 will push natural gas towards the $2.90 level.

WTI Oil Dives As U.S. And Iran Agree To Ceasefire

WTI oil is under strong pressure as traders focus on Middle East ceasefire. U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, which should provide enough time to negotiate a peace deal.

However, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Israel continues its military operation in Lebanon as the country believes that its fight against Hezbollah is not part of a ceasefire deal. Iran insists that Israel should end its military activities in Lebanon and refuses to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

It should be noted that White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt has recently said that reports indicating that the Strait of Hormuz was closed were false.

Today, the key Saudi pipeline which carries oil to the Red Sea port was attacked by a drone. Saudi Arabia reported limited damage to this important pipeline.

Markets ignore the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Saudi pipeline and focus on the upcoming peace negotiations between U.S. and Iran. Direct talks will take place in Pakistan’s capital Islamabad. JD Vance will head the U.S. delegation, supported by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

The key question is whether ceasefire will hold. Leavitt said that Lebanon was not part of a ceasefire deal, but Iran has a different position on this issue. At this point, traders are ready to bet that ceasefire will soon turn into a peace deal, and the Strait of Hormuz would be unblocked for all vessels.

Currently, WTI oil is trying to settle below the $95.00 level. In case this attempt is successful, WTI oil will move towards the nearest support, which is located in the $91.00 – $91.50 range.

On the upside, WTI oil needs to settle back above the resistance at $97.00 – $97.50 to gain momentum in the near term. A move above $97.50 will push WTI oil towards the next resistance at $102.00 – $102.50.

Brent Oil Tested The $91.00 Level

Brent oil is losing ground as traders react to geopolitical developments and bet on a peace deal between U.S. and Iran.

The market will remain extremely news-sensitive in the upcoming trading sessions. It’s too early to say that oil will soon flow freely through the Strait of Hormuz as many things could go wrong.

In case Brent oil settles below the $95.00 level, it will head towards the support at $91.50 – $92.00. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain downside momentum in the near term.

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