Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – WTI Oil Soars 13% As Traders Bet On Escalation In The Middle East

Natural Gas Retreats As Traders Focus On EIA Report

Natural gas is losing ground as traders react to the EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report.

The report indicated that working gas in storage increased by +36 Bcf from the previous week, compared to analyst forecast of +34 Bcf. The larger-than-expected draw put additional pressure on natural gas prices.

At current levels, stocks are +96 Bcf higher than last year and +54 Bcf above the five-year average for this time lf the year.

Natural gas continues its attempts to settle below the support at $2.75 – $2.80. If natural gas manages to settle below the $2.75 level, it will gain additional downside momentum and move towards the next support at $2.50 – $2.55.

WTI Oil Rallies, Supported By Trump’s Comments On Iran

WTI oil rallied as President Trump warned that U.S. will intensify strikes against Iran in the upcoming weeks. He added that Iran should make a deal before it was too late.

Traders worry that U.S. may decide to start a ground operation in Iran to unblock the Strait of Hormuz. This scenario would be a major escalation, which will push oil prices towards new highs.

Meanwhile, Iran said that it would set a toll for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. According to recent reports, ships that are moving through the Strait are already forced to pay a fee. Iran’s comments signal that the passage terms would be put on paper. Interestingly, Iran added that Oman will also regulate the vessels traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

The probability of a long war in the Middle East is rising on a daily basis. At this point, there is no easy exit for the U.S. Iran suffers serious damage every day but maintains full control of the Strait of Hormuz. There are no signs of political destabilization in the country.

Ending operation in Iran without unblocking the Strait of Hormuz will surely lead to sky-high fees for any vessels shipping oil to Western countries. It is not surprising to see that traders believe that U.S. may be forced to escalate, providing additional support to oil prices.

That said, futures traders do not believe in a months-long supply disruption. December 2026 contract for WTI oil is trading near the $71.00 level.

From the technical point of view, WTI oil rallied above the resistance at $102.00 – $102.50 and is trying to settle above the $112.00 level. In case this attempt is successful, WTI oil will move towards the next resistance level at $118.50 – $119.00.

Brent Oil Tests Resistance At $108.50 – $109.00

Brent oil gained strong upside momentum as traders focused on geopolitical developments.

Short-covering may have provided additional support to oil markets. Some traders were ready to bet on de-escalation amid signs of serious negotiations between U.S. and Iran. Today, it looks that these negotiations (assuming they have taken place) have failed.

Currently, Brent oil is trying to settle above the resistance level at $108.50 – $109.00. If Brent oil settles above $109.00, it will head towards the next resistance level, which is located near multi-year highs at $118.50 – $119.00. RSI is in the moderate territory, and there is plenty of room to gain additional upside momentum in the near term.

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