NEAR Token is Up 250% Since February: Is It A Bull Trap?

Near Protocol (NEAR) has surged more than 250% since February, but the same narratives driving the rally may also make it vulnerable to a sharp reversal.

NEAR Rally Fueled By AI, Privacy, and Arthur Hayes Hype

NEAR’s rally has accelerated as traders rotate into tokens linked to artificial intelligence, privacy and cross-chain execution.

The main catalyst is NEAR Intents, a cross-chain system that lets users move assets across blockchains without manually using bridges, multiple wallets or fragmented liquidity.

DefiLlama data shows NEAR Intents has processed over $19 billion in cumulative volume and generated about $32 million in fees.

That has helped traders frame NEAR as more than a layer-1 token. It is increasingly being treated as infrastructure for AI agents, private transactions and chain abstraction.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has added fuel to the move, saying NEAR has the potential to grow 20x by 2027, while linking its upside to NEAR Intents and the broader usability of privacy coins like Zcash (ZEC).

Dynamic Resharding Adds Another Upside Catalyst

The rally also comes ahead of NEAR’s planned dynamic resharding upgrade.

The upgrade is designed to let NEAR automatically add shards as network demand rises, improving scalability without manual intervention. NEAR says the feature will support growth in NEAR Intents and the agent economy.

If AI agents and cross-chain activity grow, NEAR could scale with that demand. Conversely, this also creates a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” risk.

If the June upgrade fails to produce visible growth in users, fees or developer activity, traders may start locking in profits.

Why NEAR Could Still Be a Bull Trap

NEAR’s biggest risk is that the price has moved faster than actual value capture.

A BitMEX analysis noted that while NEAR Intents is generating strong gross activity, gross fees are not the same as token-holder revenue.

Captured revenue remains much smaller, meaning the bullish thesis still depends on whether NEAR can convert usage into buybacks, burns, staking demand or other value-accrual mechanisms.

NEAR is now being priced as an AI token, a privacy-infrastructure token and a cross-chain execution token at the same time.

That narrative stack is powerful in a momentum market. It is also fragile if AI tokens cool off, Zcash loses momentum, or Hayes-linked speculation fades.

NEAR Technical Analysis: Some Upside, Many Downsides

NEAR’s weekly chart suggests the token may still have some upside left before the bullish momentum starts looking exhausted.

The token has broken sharply higher since February, with its weekly relative strength index climbing toward the overbought zone. Still, the RSI has not yet crossed above 70, suggesting buyers may have room to push the price toward its multi-year descending trendline resistance.

That resistance sits near $3.56, aligning closely with NEAR’s 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. In other words, the token may jump 35% by June.

A move toward that zone remains possible in the days leading up to the dynamic resharding launch, especially if traders keep front-running the upgrade in a classic “buy the rumor” setup.

But the longer-term chart still looks risky.

NEAR remains below the descending trendline that has capped its major rebounds since 2022. A rejection near $3.56 would keep that broader downtrend intact and raise the risk of a sharp pullback later this year.

A weekly RSI move above 70 would add to the bull-trap risk by signaling overheated momentum. Sticky inflation and renewed rate-hike fears could also pressure high-beta altcoins like NEAR.

NEAR can still rally into the upgrade, but without a clear breakout above long-term resistance, the move may remain a bull trap rather than a trend reversal.