Corona Virus
Stay Safe, FollowGuidance
Fetching Location Data…
Vivek M. Kumar

Seattle-based luxury department store chain Nordstrom said net sales declined nearly 22% in the nine-week holiday season as shoppers avoided department stores due a fresh spike in COVID-19 cases, sending its shares down about 3% in extended trading on Wednesday.

However, digital sales surge 23% over last year and represented 54% of total sales compared with 34% from the same period in fiscal 2019. The specialty retailer forecasts to deliver positive earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) and operating cash flow for the fourth quarter.

Know where the Market is headed? Take advantage now with 

75% of retail CFD investors lose money

“We expect the consensus 2020 EPS estimate to fall about 9% on today’s release (about -32c lost on the full year as the 46c Street 4Q estimate likely falls to about 14c as implied by y/y EBIT margin contraction). On the positive side, holiday-related headwinds that impacted the quarter likely abate going forward,” wrote Kimberly Greenberger, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“We slightly lower our 4Qe EBIT margin estimate to be in-line with management’s -500 bps y/y forecast. More specifically, we marginally lower both 4Q gross margin and SG&A rate by 15 bps each due to the aforementioned headwinds, yielding -500 bps y/y EBIT margin (2.3% vs. 2.6% prior).”

Following this announcement, Nordstrom shares fell about 3% to $36.5 in extended trading on Wednesday; the stock plunged over 20% in 2020.

Nordstrom will hold an analyst event on Feb. 4 and report its full earnings on March 2. We expect to update our model and analysis after these events, although we do not anticipate any significant changes to our long-term view or valuation. The firm is likely to report an EPS loss of more than $4.00 for 2020, but we forecast positive EPS in 2021 (our current expectation is $1.57),” said David Swartz, equity analyst at Morningstar.

“In the long term, we forecast revenue growth and operating margins of about 2% and 5%, respectively. We view Nordstrom as fully valued as its shares trade at a slight premium to our per share fair value estimate of $33.50.”

Nordstrom Stock Price Forecast

Eleven analysts who offered stock ratings for Nordstrom (JWN) in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months at $24.00 with a high forecast of $35.00 and a low forecast of $11.00. The average price target represents a -36.14% decrease from the last price of $37.58. From those 11 analysts, two rated “Buy”, seven rated “Hold” and two rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley gave a base target price of $19 with a high of $35 under a bull scenario and $10 under the worst-case scenario. The firm currently has an “Equal-weight” rating on the specialty retailer’s stock.

Several other analysts have also recently commented on the stock. Credit Suisse raised the target price to $39 from $26. Keybanc upped the price objective to $42 from $35. Wedbush increased the stock price forecast to $35 from $17. In November, Nordstrom had its target price lifted by Telsey Advisory Group to $28 from $24. Zacks Investment Research upgraded Nordstrom from a sell rating to a hold rating and set a $17 price target.


Analyst Comments

“Secular Challenges Eclipse Nordstrom’s (JWN) Strengths: JWN’s standout service, competitive pricing, coveted product, and seamless multichannel shopping experience differentiate JWN from department store peers and should stay relevant L-T, especially as high-end consumers kick start spending again,” Morgan Stanley’s Greenberger added.

“However, department store margins appear in secular decline, largely driven by channel shift to lower margin eCommerce sales, and JWN is not immune. Although we think JWN can remain highly relevant, its future earnings growth rate appears limited.”

Upside and Downside Risks

Risks to Upside: 1) Strength at the high end causes a meaningful rebound in-store comps and eComm. 2) EBIT margins stabilize after multi-year declines. 3) Capital spending on IT/Tech decelerates, potentially allowing JWN to drive expense leverage on a 1-2% comp. 4) Rack.com proves resilient– highlighted by Morgan Stanley.

Risks to Downside: 1) 2020 COVID-19/recession impact more severe than anticipated. 2) CECL has a greater impact than forecasted to credit revenue.

Check out FX Empire’s earnings calendar

Don't miss a thing!
Discover what's moving the markets. Sign up for a daily update delivered to your inbox

Trade With A Regulated Broker

  • Your capital is at risk
The content provided on the website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and contents provided by third parties, which are intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be read as, any recommendation or advice to take any action whatsoever, including to make any investment or buy any product. When making any financial decision, you should perform your own due diligence checks, apply your own discretion and consult your competent advisors. The content of the website is not personally directed to you, and we does not take into account your financial situation or needs.The information contained in this website is not necessarily provided in real-time nor is it necessarily accurate. Prices provided herein may be provided by market makers and not by exchanges.Any trading or other financial decision you make shall be at your full responsibility, and you must not rely on any information provided through the website. FX Empire does not provide any warranty regarding any of the information contained in the website, and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using any information contained in the website.The website may include advertisements and other promotional contents, and FX Empire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with the content. FX Empire does not endorse any third party or recommends using any third party's services, and does not assume responsibility for your use of any such third party's website or services.FX Empire and its employees, officers, subsidiaries and associates, are not liable nor shall they be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided on this website.
This website includes information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs) and other financial instruments, and about brokers, exchanges and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.FX Empire encourages you to perform your own research before making any investment decision, and to avoid investing in any financial instrument which you do not fully understand how it works and what are the risks involved.