NZD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Caught Between 50% levels at .7294 and .7108

The NZD/USD closed nearly flat last week, suggesting investor indecision and impending volatility. The fundamentals are bearish but buyers have been stubbornly coming in on the dips to prevent a washout to the downside.

Weekly Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart, however, momentum has been trending lower since the week-ending February 16.

A trade through .7437 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is down. A trade through .7354 will change the minor trend to up. Taking out .7152 will signal a resumption of the minor downtrend.

The main range is .6780 to .7437. Its retracement zone at .7108 to 7031 is the primary downside target. This seems to be the area that buyers are defending. Since the main trend is up, we could see a technical bounce on the first test of this area.

The minor range is .7437 to .7152. Its retracement zone at .7294 to .7328 is the primary upside target. This area provided resistance last week and actually stopped a rally.

Weekly Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s close at .7231, the direction of the NZD/USD this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to a pair of Gann angles at .7180 and .7157.

Holding above .7180 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum, we could see a rally back to a resistance cluster at .7294 to .7297. Counter-trend sellers may stop the rally into this zone. Overcoming .7297 could trigger a further rally into .7328, followed by a downtrending Gann angle at .7367.

Crossing to the weak side of the angle at .7157 will indicate the presence of sellers. Taking out .7152 should trigger a break into .7108. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into .7031.