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James Hyerczyk

The New Zealand Dollar is edging higher against the U.S. Dollar early Monday after the release of better-than-expected economic news. The outlook for business in New Zealand for May saw a small bounce across all forward-looking activity indicators, but levels sill remain low because of coronavirus concerns, a preliminary reading of an ANZ Bank survey showed on Monday.

At 04:47 GMT, the NZD/USD is trading .6146, up 0.0010 or +0.16%.

The survey’s headline measure for May showed a net 45.6 percent of respondents expected the economy to deteriorate over the year ahead. It compared with a 66.6 percent pessimism level in the final survey at the end of April.

A net 42.0 percent of respondents expected weaker activity for their own businesses in the next 12 months, from 55.1 percent in the last survey.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .6176 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through .5995 will change the main trend to down.

The main range is .6448 to .5469. Its retracement zone at .6074 to .5958 is support. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the Forex pair.

The minor range is .5911 to .6176. Its 50% level at .6043 is additional support.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Base on the recent price action, we’re looking for the upside bias to continue as long as the NZD/USD holds above the main Fibonacci level at .6074.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6074 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this continues to generate enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the main top at .6176. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next major target the March 9 top at .6448.

Bearish Scenario

Since the main trend is up, buyers could come in on the first test of .6074. If it fails then look for the selling to extend into the pivot at .6043.

Taking out .6043 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could lead to a test of .5995. If this price fails then the main trend will change to down.

Side Notes

Increased demand for higher risk assets and improvements in the number of coronavirus cases will continue to generate upside potential. The momentum will reverse if conditions worsen.

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