Oil and Natural Gas Technical Analysis: Impact of OPEC+ Output Hike and US Dollar Trends

OPEC+ is preparing to approve another output increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day in November. The move follows a series of quota hikes since April. These increases have added more than 2.5 million barrels per day to global supply. The group produces nearly half of the world’s oil and is aiming to expand its market share after years of supply cuts. The economic uncertainty in the United States has prompted OPEC+ to ease production restrictions. The goal is to prevent prices from rising too high.

Oil prices have stabilised in a narrow $60–$70 range since the production hikes began earlier this year. While prices briefly spiked above $65 on Friday after Ukrainian drone attacks disrupted Russian energy infrastructure, supply growth remains the dominant driver. The resumption of additional barrels offsets much of the geopolitical risk premium, keeping gains limited. This balancing act illustrates how production policy directly affects short-term price fluctuations.

The planned November hike highlights the bearish undertone for crude oil. With most OPEC+ members already pumping near capacity, actual supply growth may fall short of targets. However, incremental increases weigh on sentiment by signalling more supply ahead. Oil prices are likely to remain capped near current levels, despite occasional geopolitical spikes, unless demand strengthens significantly.

WTI Crude Oil (CL) Technical Analysis

WTI Oil Daily Chart – Bearish Pressure

The daily chart for WTI crude oil (CL) shows that the price was rejected at the 200-day SMA near $67. After rejection, the price continues to drop within the bearish trend. The price is now testing support within the ascending channel at the $63 region, pointing to a possible move toward $60.

A break below the $60 level would likely trigger a sharper decline in oil prices. The overall trend stays bearish as long as the price trades under the 200-day SMA. In addition, the RSI remains below the mid-level, confirming continued downside momentum.

WTI Oil 4-Hour Chart – Consolidation with Negative Bias

The 4-hour chart for WTI crude oil shows that the price has been consolidating between the $60 and $65 region. This consolidation has created negative price action. A break below $60 would likely trigger a sharp decline in oil prices. As long as the price stays below the $70 level, the bearish trend is expected to continue.

Natural Gas (NG) Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Daily Chart – Bullish Construction

The daily chart for natural gas (NG) indicates that the price has formed strong support at the neckline of the cup-and-handle pattern. This support is located within the range of $2.50 to $2.60. The sharp rebound from this support level suggests that prices are likely to remain elevated. Moreover, the strong resistance sits at $3.50. A break above this level would signal a positive trend in natural gas prices.

Natural Gas 4-Hour Chart – Rebound

The 4-hour chart for natural gas shows a strong rebound from $2.60, therefore signalling a positive trend. Meanwhile, the key resistance is located in the $3.50–$3.60 zone, near the black dotted trendline. If broken, a move above $3.60 would likely trigger a strong rally toward the $5.00 level.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily Chart – Breakout of Bear Flag

The daily chart for the USD Index shows that the index rejected at the long-term support of 96.50. A rebound was developed toward the 50-day SMA after rejection. The index remains in a consolidation zone after breaking out of the bear flag pattern. However, the rebound may extend toward 100.50. The broader trend remains bearish, and as long as the index trades below 100.50, the negative outlook is likely to continue.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Short-Term Rebound

The 4-hour chart for the USD Index indicates that the rebound from 96.50 has formed a bullish structure. This structure is characterised by an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern with a neckline at 98.60. However, this setup does not change the bearish outlook as long as the price stays below 100.50. The rebound suggests the index is still in a consolidation phase, and a break below 96.50 would likely trigger another decline.