Oil News: Crude Futures Stall Below Key Averages as Traders Eye Shutdown Progress

Oil Prices Hold Steady as Shutdown Deal Offers Some Relief, But Headwinds Remain

Light crude oil futures are steady early Monday after paring overnight gains. Prices are currently stalling just below technical resistance from the 50-day moving average at $61.08 and the 200-day at $61.67, keeping a lid on any upside momentum.

Support sits in a retracement zone between $59.27 and $58.49, with last week’s low at $58.83 offering an intermediate floor. Until bulls push through the 200-day or bears crack $58.49 decisively, this market looks stuck in range-trade mode.

At 11:08 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $59.86, up $0.11 or +0.18%.

Government Shutdown Progress Sparks Risk-On Sentiment

News that the U.S. Senate passed the first stage of a deal to end the 40-day government shutdown injected some risk appetite into markets, including oil. Traders are betting that a resolution could revive government spending and lift demand in the world’s top oil-consuming economy. The procedural vote clears a path to fund the government through January, pending House approval and the president’s signature.

Still, demand optimism remains cautious. Over 2,800 U.S. flights were canceled Sunday, marking the most significant air travel disruption since the shutdown began, raising concerns about short-term jet fuel consumption. That said, if the shutdown resolution holds, some of that lost demand could snap back in the coming weeks.

Supply Concerns Still in Play as Inventories Build

Even with a potentially bullish broader economic backdrop, supply-side pressures are capping rallies. WTI and Brent both posted around 2% losses last week—marking the second consecutive weekly drop—on the back of oversupply concerns. OPEC+ is bumping up production modestly in December but holding off on further hikes in Q1, signaling caution.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories are climbing, and floating storage in Asia is surging. Tighter sanctions on Russian barrels have rerouted supply, but Chinese demand is lagging due to limited import quotas. That disconnect—between rising global stockpiles and patchy demand from major consumers—is keeping a ceiling on prices.

Russia Headlines Add Noise, But No Clear Impact Yet

Russia remains a wildcard. Attacks on the Tuapse refinery and mounting disruptions at Lukoil, with a looming U.S. deadline to sever business ties by November 21, add geopolitical risk. However, these events haven’t translated into immediate supply shocks or a clear directional move for crude, at least not yet.

Outlook: Range-Bound Unless Key Levels Break

Technically, crude is stuck. The 200-day moving average near $61.67 is acting as a ceiling. Bulls need to clear it with conviction to open the door for upside. On the flip side, a breakdown below Fibonacci support at $58.49 would likely invite fresh selling. Until either level gives way, expect more choppy, indecisive trade.

Bottom line: Traders are watching for follow-through on the shutdown deal, but soft demand signals and rising stockpiles are keeping a lid on price. Stay nimble — the market isn’t trending yet.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.