Oil News: Strong EIA Report Could Anchor WTI in Key Support Zone Between 200- and 50-Day MAs

Crude Oil Climbs as Traders Focus on EIA, Middle East Ceasefire, and Fed Rate Path

Light crude oil futures are rebounding modestly on Wednesday, attempting to stabilize after a steep two-day sell-off that pulled prices to multi-week lows. WTI is currently straddling the 200-day moving average at $65.10, a key technical level, with additional support coming from the 50-day moving average at $61.80. Resistance is building at the long-term pivot of $67.44.

At 10:32 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $64.85, up $0.48 or +0.75%.

Traders are closely watching these levels as two potential consolidation zones emerge: one between $67.44 and $65.10, and a second between $65.10 and $61.80. The market’s next move will depend heavily on upcoming inventory data and broader demand cues.

Middle East Ceasefire Eases Supply Fears but Risk Premium Lingers

Oil prices are up more than 1% on the day as investors weigh the status of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. While both sides have declared an end to hostilities, U.S. intelligence reports suggest Iran’s nuclear capabilities were only temporarily disrupted. ING analysts note that although immediate fears of supply disruption have faded, the underlying risk remains—a factor likely to support spot prices in the short term.

Crude had previously spiked following U.S. military action against Iranian infrastructure but has since pulled back as the ceasefire holds. The geopolitical premium, while lower, has not been fully priced out.

Crude Oil News Today: API Shows Major Draw, Traders Await EIA Report

Industry data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) revealed a significant 4.23 million barrel draw in U.S. crude inventories for the week ending June 20, far exceeding expectations of a 0.8 million barrel decline. Gasoline and distillate stocks each rose by 0.4 million barrels.

Market attention now turns to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report due Wednesday. Traders expect a 1.2 million barrel draw, and confirmation of this by the EIA—widely considered the industry benchmark—would reinforce a tightening supply narrative.

Federal Reserve Rate Expectations Bolster Oil Demand Outlook

Macroeconomic sentiment is also giving crude a lift. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony hinted at a potential rate cut as early as July, feeding expectations of nearly 60 basis points of easing by year-end. Soft U.S. consumer confidence data has further strengthened the case for monetary easing, which typically supports oil demand through broader economic activity.

Oil Prices Forecast: Cautiously Bullish with Support at Key Technical Levels

Crude prices are likely to consolidate in one of two zones—either between the long-term pivot of $67.44 and the 200-day average at $65.10, or lower between $65.10 and the 50-day average at $61.80. With geopolitical risks subdued and demand signals improving, the market holds a cautiously bullish short-term bias. Confirmation of tightening inventories from the EIA could trigger a test of the upper band near $71.20.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.