Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Powell Comments, CPI Uncertainty Pressure Prices

Gold futures are trading lower late in the session on Monday as U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar firmed ahead of Tuesday’s U.S. consumer inflation report. Sellers are worried about a surprise jump in inflation that could send yields higher like the U.S producer inflation report did on Friday.

At 19:09 GMT, June Comex gold futures re trading $1732.50, down $12.30 or -0.70%.

Fed’s Powell:  US Economy at an ‘Inflection Point’ – CBS ’60 Minutes’

The U.S. economy is at an “inflection point” with expectations that growth and hiring will pick up speed in the months ahead, but also risks if a hasty reopening leads to a continued increase in coronavirus cases, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said.

In an interview on the CBS news magazine “60 Minutes” that aired on Sunday night, Powell echoed both his recent optimism about the economy and a now-familiar warning that the COVID-19 pandemic had not yet been fully defeated.

“There really are risks out there. And the principal one just is that we will reopen too quickly, people will too quickly return to their old practices, and we’ll see another spike in cases,” Powell said in the interview, recorded on Wednesday.

The impact of vaccinations should mean any coming spike in cases is not as severe and does not have the same disastrous effects on public health and the economy as prior surges. But Powell said the economic recovery will still “move ahead more quickly to the extent we keep the spread of COVID under control.”

“It’s going to be smart if people can continue to socially distance and wear masks.”

Powell also drew a distinction between the Fed’s intent to let inflation run “moderately” above its 2% target, and anything faster than that.

“We don’t want inflation to go up materially above 2% and go back to…the bad, old inflation days,” of the 1970s, Powell said.

Powell said as recently as Thursday that a coming upswing in inflation readings is likely to be transitory and won’t cause the Fed to change its plans for monetary policy.

Tuesday’s Consumer Inflation Report

Ahead of Tuesday’s U.S. CPI report, traders are predicting a monthly rise of 0.5%, this is up from 0.4%. Core CPI is expected to come in at 0.2%, up from 0.1%.

The pace of consumer inflation is likely to have returned to pre-pandemic levels in March, and it is expected to heat up even more in the next couple of months.